As Punxsutawney Phil prepares for his Groundhog Day prediction this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are already analyzing weather trends and offering insights into what the coming months may hold. AccuWeather’s 2025 U.S. Spring Forecast will be released on February 5th.
January 2025 was a notably cold month for much of the United States, with back-to-back Arctic blasts and a rare winter storm impacting the South. AccuWeather’s prediction on December 30th that January could see the lowest overall temperatures since 2011 appears to be accurate.
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Despite the lingering cold in some regions, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok reports that milder weather has arrived in the southern U.S. “The transition to springlike weather and warmer air is happening earlier than the historical average from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast,” Pastelok said. “There may be some temporary setbacks, but warm air is returning to Florida and the Gulf Coast states.”
However, the transition to spring will be slower in the interior Northeast and Great Lakes, where colder winter weather is expected to persist. Pastelok anticipates a “sluggish” transition with fluctuations between mild periods and blasts of cold, wintry weather. “We still have opportunities for snow and ice over the next few weeks in areas that have not seen much snow this winter, like the Midwest,” he explained.
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Despite the recent winter storms, drought conditions are worsening across much of the country. Pastelok expressed concern about the impact on farmers, noting that approximately 62% of the country is currently facing drought conditions, compared to 38% at the same time last year. The drought is particularly severe in the northern Plains and the Southwest, which have missed out on significant precipitation this winter.
Pastelok predicts a pattern change in early February, with the jet stream shifting the storm track. “The jet stream will start bringing storms to the Northwest. We expect quite a bit of rain and mountain snow in Northern California and Oregon through next week,” he said. This shift will allow milder air to return to the Southeast and south-central U.S.
The AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Spring Forecast will be released on February 5th at 8:30 a.m. EST during a live media briefing and Q&A session with Paul Pastelok.
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