While all eyes are on South Carolina following New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday, one state will hold its nominating contests two weeks earlier — Nevada.
Nevada is holding a state primary on Feb. 6 and a party-run caucus two days later, but only one of the nominating contests will count for awarding delegates to the Republican National Committee’s July convention. While former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will be on the primary ballot, former President Donald Trump is the only major Republican candidate competing for delegates in the Nevada GOP-run caucus.
“I know that some people got angry when CNN called Iowa before people voted, but you could’ve called Nevada months ago,” Jeremy Hughes, a Republican strategist based in Nevada, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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The Nevada Republican Party had been holding caucuses in presidential cycles for decades until former Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak signed legislation in 2021 requiring a primary system for such elections. The state GOP has pushed back against the new law, deciding to hold the caucus anyway and award the 26 delegates proportionally through its results.
Republican presidential candidates could only participate in one nominating contest at the state party’s direction.
With the former president participating in the caucus, which is run by the state party comprised largely of Trump allies, many candidates did not compete heavily in the state that was third on the nominating calendar as they likely would have in other cycles.
The most recent poll for the Republican caucus in Nevada, conducted by Emerson College and released on Jan. 9, found Trump with 73% support.
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“We just haven’t quite made our impact on that earlier timeframe yet because of some of the confusion with the caucus as opposed to the primary,” Tami Rae Spero, county clerk in predominately Republican Humboldt County, told the DCNF. “With a lot of the candidates dropping, whether it be from the caucus side or [the primary], it’s really coming down to a couple of different candidates. And because of the restriction on if you participate in the caucus, you can’t participate in the presidential preference, it’s probably a bit of a given on who’s going to take each of those races.”
Along with Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum were all set to participate in the party caucus. Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott opted to be on the primary ballot alongside Haley.
Amy Tarkanian, former chair of the state GOP, has been critical of Nevada’s Republican leadership for keeping its caucus process, barring candidates from competing in both contests and charging a $50,000 fee to participate. The former chair believes the state party has has deliberately made it more difficult for other candidates to compete in its caucus, while placing its thumb on the scale for Trump.
“You wouldn’t even think that elections are happening right now,” Tarkanian told the DCNF. “Which once again, is very sad because we’re missing out. We’re missing out on a lot of great opportunities to be able to listen to candidates. You know, it’s one thing to see them on TV when the lights are on. But then when you’re able to be up close and more personal with them, you get a different side. So I think it’s really disenfranchised Nevada voters.”
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Jim DeGraffenreid, national committeeman for the Nevada Republican Party, believes that there hasn’t been as much attention on Nevada this cycle because of the dual-nominating contests, the various candidates dropping out and that “from the beginning, it seemed like the nominees were sort of set.”
The committeeman dismissed the notion that the caucus has been structured to benefit Trump, pointing out to the DCNF that they’ve been holding the nominating contest for decades.
“To say that the caucus in any way is being set up for a candidate is pretty disingenuous,” said DeGraffenreid. “The caucus, it should be remembered, happens in over 1,000 separate precinct meetings across the state. Each of those precinct meetings is run by the grassroots Republicans in those precincts, and so it would be virtually impossible for anybody to have any meaningful success in rigging, so to speak, the caucus.
“Caucus success comes down to having a ground game and being willing to work with the grassroots to turn people out to those caucus meetings. And knowing that the caucus was the way the delegates were going to be earned all the way back from the middle of last year, gave any candidate who wanted to the opportunity to develop that ground game and get that grassroots support in the caucuses,” DeGraffenreid added.
Nevada voters will be able to select “none of these candidates” on the primary ballot. If the option gets more support than Haley, or shores up a significant amount of the vote, it could serve as a blow to the former ambassador ahead of her home state primary two weeks later, Hughes argued.
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“I think the biggest question will be, does Nikki Haley win the primary or does ‘none of these candidates?’ … at this point, I kind of wonder if it’s the favorite,” said Hughes. “Donald Trump has a very loyal following in Nevada, so I know there have been multiple people saying they will vote ‘none of the above’ to send a message.”
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo endorsed the former president on Jan. 18, vowing to vote for “none of these candidates” in the primary and caucus for Trump two days later, according to The Nevada Independent.
There is some precedent in Nevada for the winner of a primary being “none of these candidates.” In 2014, the top vote getter in the Democratic primary for governor was “none of these candidates” with nearly 30% support, while Bob Goodman received roughly 25% of the share.
Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% support on Jan. 15, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 21.2% and Haley at 19.9%. Just days later, after DeSantis withdrew from the race, Trump beat Haley in the New Hampshire primary 54.3% to 43.3%.
Trump has already taken to Truth Social since his New Hampshire win, boasting that he has already won the state of Nevada, as well. The former president is holding a “Commit to Caucus Rally” on Saturday in Las Vegas, the same day that early voting for the primary begins.
Karoline Leavitt, national spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, echoed the former president’s sentiment in a statement to the DCNF.
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“President Trump has already won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, and he will demolish Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina because Nikki Haley’s campaign is funded by Democrat donors, run by Democrat staffers, and openly targeting Democrat voters,” said Leavitt. “Haley has never and will never have a pathway to the Republican nomination, and it’s beyond time for her to drop out.”
In New Hampshire, registered undeclared voters were able to participate in the Republican primary, where Haley gained most of her support from, according to CNN’s exit polling. The former ambassador secured a majority of support from those who identified as Democrats and “moderate/liberal,” while only winning 25% of Republicans and 27% of conservatives.
South Carolina’s primary is even friendlier to Democrats participating in the Republican primary, as the state doesn’t register voters by party, according to the state’s election commission. Individuals can vote in either primary so long as they’re a registered voter in the Palmetto State.
Trump currently has a 30-point lead over Haley in the state, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
Haley is hoping for a big turnout in her home state, where she was elected twice as governor. The former ambassador told a crowd of supporters following her loss in New Hampshire that “this race is far from over,” adding that “the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”
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Spero said it makes sense why Haley is looking ahead to South Carolina rather than Nevada, nodding to Trump’s likely victory in the state.
“You have to put your focus on the areas that you believe will benefit you, you have to put your money, you know, it’s not like everybody has an unlimited budget on that,” Spero said. “I believe our current situation in Nevada has created that focus on other locations.”
Haley’s campaign did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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