Ukrainian officials have reported a significant escalation in Russian military presence in Kursk Oblast following Ukraine’s incursion into the region. According to Vadym Mysnyk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Northern Operational Command, Russian forces initially had about 11,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast at the onset of Ukraine’s offensive in early August 2024.
However, by mid-September, the Russian force in the region had swelled to between 30,000 and 45,000 troops. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky corroborated these figures, stating that Russia has concentrated 40,000 soldiers in Kursk and is aiming to increase that number to 60,000-70,000.
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Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that approximately 35,500 Russian troops are currently deployed in 61 units responsible for the defense of several districts within Kursk Oblast.
This buildup reflects Russia’s response to operational pressures from Ukraine’s offensive, requiring Moscow to redeploy forces from the frontlines in Ukraine to Kursk. The potential for a Russian counteroffensive to regain lost territory in the region may necessitate even more troop redeployments and additional resources.
Meanwhile, the conflict has led to an increase in prisoner-of-war (POW) exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. On September 14, both nations conducted their third POW exchange since Ukraine’s Kursk incursion.
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Ukraine reported that 103 servicemembers were returned, including defenders of the Azovstal Steel Plant and members of the Ukrainian National Police and State Border Service. Russia also confirmed that 103 prisoners, many of whom were reportedly conscripts, were returned to them by Ukraine. This follows another exchange on September 13, during which 49 prisoners were swapped on each side.
Ukrainian officials believe the Kursk offensive has strengthened their negotiating position for POW exchanges, with three swaps since the operation began in August, resulting in the exchange of 267 prisoners on both sides. In contrast, only three POW exchanges occurred between January 1 and August 6, involving around 405 Ukrainian and 423 Russian POWs.
However, issues persist within the Russian military, with reports indicating that some Russian commanders are undermining their own forces’ capabilities.
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Russian milbloggers have highlighted a disturbing trend of field commanders sending technical specialists, such as drone operators and electronic warfare experts, into dangerous frontal assault roles as punishment for dissent. In one widely reported case, two drone operators from the 87th Motorized Rifle Regiment died in combat near Pokrovsk after being reassigned to an assault detachment.
The practice of misusing specialists is reportedly common, particularly among units within the 51st Combined Arms Army, and is degrading the overall effectiveness of Russian forces.
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Milbloggers and analysts have pointed out that this misuse of skilled personnel further diminishes Russia’s ability to effectively utilize technological innovations in combat. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate tactical and technical ingenuity on the battlefield, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the two militaries.
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