Donald Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris with a notable ten-point lead, holding a 52 percent chance of winning compared to Harris’s 42 percent, according to a new report.
Hill reveals that, since late August, election models estimated Harris’s chances of victory to be around 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s hovering at about 44 to 46 percent. However, in early October, this balance began to shift, and both candidates’ odds of winning were nearly tied.
By October 17, the forecast had both candidates equally likely to secure the win, but Trump pulled ahead by October 20.
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This shift aligns with Trump’s improving polling numbers in key battleground states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which had leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already held a narrow edge in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. While Harris continues to lead in Pennsylvania, Trump and his campaign are focusing heavily on the state as the election season nears its final stretch.
Despite Trump’s recent gains, the race is still considered a toss-up. Polling in seven key states remains within the margin of error, meaning that typical polling inaccuracies could still influence the outcome either way, The Hill reports.
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Adding to the uncertainty, a former CIA and Pentagon advisor has warned of a potential “November Surprise” that could lead to a significant constitutional crisis in the U.S.
As of Sunday, neither candidate has secured a clear path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
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