Recent polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College indicate that former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five key battleground states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
Trump is also gaining ground among young and nonwhite voters.
These polls have sparked discussions and reactions across various political and media platforms, highlighting potential implications for the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
Read: Trump Quashes Rumor That Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley Is In The VP Running
According to the latest New York Times/Siena College survey, Trump is ahead of Biden among likely voters in Nevada by 13 points, nine points in Georgia, six points in Arizona, three points in Pennsylvania, and one point in Wisconsin. Biden is only leading in one state, Michigan, with a 47% to 45% margin.
Additionally, the poll found that Trump has narrowed the margin with Biden among two crucial voting blocs Democrats typically win by large margins — black and Hispanic individuals. Across the six swing states, Biden is leading Trump 70% to 18% among black voters and 47% to 42% among Hispanic voters.
The margins are smaller than those from the NYT/Siena College’s previous poll of the same battleground states and in the exit polling from the 2020 election. According to Edison Research, Biden won black and Hispanic voters by 75 and 33 points, respectively.
When independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included in the poll, Trump’s leads will grow in Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, while the former president’s margin will stay the same in Wisconsin and drop by one point in Georgia. Biden’s advantage in Michigan jumps from one to three points.
Trump narrowly won Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016 but lost them all to Biden the following cycle. Nevada went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
While Trump boasted leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Republican Senate candidates did not, according to the survey. Democratic Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown were tied at 41%; Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led Republican David McCormick by two points; Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego led Republican Kari Lake by three points; Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin led Republican Eric Hovde by seven points.
The RealClearPolitics average for a 2024 head-to-head matchup with Biden shows Trump leading by 1.2 points nationally, with the former president ahead in seven swing states. Trump is 6.2 points ahead in Nevada, 5.4 points in North Carolina, 5.2 points in Arizona, 4.6 points in Georgia, two points in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points in Michigan, and 0.6 points in Wisconsin.
The NYT/Siena College poll surveyed 4,097 likely general election voters between April 28 and May 9 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9%. Individually, the survey yielded margins of error of plus or minus 3.6% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Arizona, 4.5% in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and 4.6% in Georgia.
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