Although Vice President Kamala Harris has her work cut out for her if she hopes to take back former President Donald Trump’s hard-fought gains with Latinos, experts say the voting bloc is now “back in play” for Democrats.
Trump maintains a strong lead with Latinos on key issues, mainly the border crisis and inflation — both of which have plagued the Biden-Harris administration. Despite the voting bloc being up for grabs with Harris atop the presidential ticket, experts say that the vice president will actually have to speak on the “issues” that matter most to Latinos in order to win back trust ahead of November.
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“This political demographic, like others across the political spectrum, is now back in play with the change of nominees from President Biden to Vice President Harris,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That said, she’s going to have to apply some elbow grease to the assignment.”
“I think she has the opportunity to reset the conversation,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “I think that the change atop the Democratic ticket has opened a window for this vice president to make inroads with this constituency that maybe had not been available to President Biden. But it’s a window, and just as windows open, windows close.”
A majority of Latinos, 60%, reported that the cost of living and inflation are the top priorities going into November, 38% said jobs and the economy are most important and 29% said housing costs, according to a Hispanic Federation/BSP Research poll conducted from Aug. 6 to Aug. 11. Immigration was also at the forefront for Latino voters, with 21% saying that issues at the U.S.-Mexico border and 20% reporting immigration reform for “immigrants already here” are a priority.
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At the same time, Latinos trust Trump with the economy and immigration more so than they do Harris, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll from Aug. 28. Trump has a six point advantage over Harris on both the economy and inflation, as well as a two point advantage with respect to the “immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.”
“If you’re a Hispanic citizen and you’re able to vote, it’s likely you really resent what Harris has done to the country in the last three and a half years,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “They really resent that illegals are coming here, getting free services that they’re paying for with their taxes, getting free state funded tuition and just getting a lot of taxpayer funded benefits that legal immigrants have sacrificed for. They’re really resentful, so she’s got a lot to explain.”
“Inflation, the border crisis, and the overflow of crime are serious problems impacting the Latino community, and all communities across the country,” Jaime Flores, Hispanic communications director for the RNC, told the DCNF. “The message of unity that President Trump transmits everywhere he goes invites us all to work together to make our country great again, regardless of the language we speak or the ethnic group to which we belong.”
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Before Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, the vast majority of Latino Republicans, 86%, said they are likely to vote in November, according to an Axios Vibes/Harris Poll from July. At the same time, only 71% of Latino Democrats and 54% of Latino independents expressed the same enthusiasm.
But since Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have taken the reins, Latino Democrats and Latino Republicans are nearly tied, with 83% and 84% respectively saying they are now extremely likely to vote, according to an Axios Vibes/Harris Poll from Aug. 20. Independent Latino voters remained unaffected by the ticket change, with just 52% reporting that they will vote in November.
“I think it’s important to acknowledge here that sometimes it’s the party, and sometimes it’s the candidate,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF. “Biden had problems, but Biden had problems because Biden was a Democrat. In this case it’s a Democratic problem. And the Democratic problem happened because they were perceived as being the stewards of the economy, and because the economy was perceived as not working for people. Latinos just reacted accordingly.”
A significant portion of Latino voters in swing states remain unconvinced by either candidate. In Arizona, Harris is polling at 43% among Hispanic likely voters, which is an 18-point lead over the former president’s 25%, according to a TelevisaUnivision/Media Predict poll from Aug. 22.
Despite Harris’ lead, nearly a third of Hispanic likely voters are still undecided on who they will ultimately cast their ballot for in November, according to the poll.
“Nevada and Arizona and other states with large Hispanic concentrations are in play and collectively, those battlegrounds could determine the election,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “This will be a very coveted political constituency in the fall.”
“Latinos are to Democrats what suburban dads are to Republicans,” Chand told the DCNF. “It’s more consequential for Democrats because Latinos are an indispensable part of their voting coalition. And Latinos are more sensitive to these issues even within a general electorate in which everybody is perceiving these economic problems.”
Two Democratic PACs, Priorities USA Action and the Somos Votantes PAC, have recently spearheaded a bilingual ad campaign called The Margins Project in an effort to get Latino voters to turn out for Harris in November. The ad campaign has focused their messaging on Harris’ policy record regarding the economy, immigration and abortion, according to Politico.
“I think victory is going to go not only to the party and to the campaign that reaches out and targets this base with the greatest degree of regularity, but is also talking about the issues in a way that resonates with Latino voters,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “Similar to voters across the demographic spectrum, Latinos are concerned with the rising cost of goods and services, concerned with the inability to buy a home or move out of their starter home into an upgrade, concerned with the relatively high tax burdens and concerned with the border crisis.”
“To the credit of legal immigrants, not just Hispanics, but any legal immigrant that has gone through our system, they’re not being fooled by this,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “They’re rejecting Harris and supporting President Trump, and that’s why the race is still leading a lot of the battleground states.”
First published by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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