Former President Donald Trump has closed in on Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, a state that hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential race since 2000.
According to a new Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey conducted between October 21-23, Harris holds a slim three-point lead, with 50% of likely voters supporting her compared to 47% for Trump. Third-party candidates account for 2%, while 1% remain undecided.
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This tight race indicates unexpected competitiveness in a state that President Joe Biden won by over 7% in 2020. The poll highlights a notable shift among male voters toward Trump, while Harris retains strong support among women, mirroring Biden’s previous performance.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Additionally, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who favor Harris by 13 points, compared to Biden’s stronger advantage among independents in the last election.”
Economic concerns are at the forefront for New Hampshire voters, with 34% citing the economy as their primary issue, followed by 26% pointing to housing affordability. Trump’s focus on financial recovery and job creation could appeal to these concerns, while Harris faces the challenge of addressing economic anxieties to solidify her support in the state.
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Other recent polls also show challenges for Harris, including a close race for Arab American support. A new Arab News/YouGov poll reveals Trump slightly leading Harris among this demographic, with 45% backing Trump compared to Harris’s 43%. Harris’s team is reportedly concerned about her standing in critical swing states like Michigan, where the support of Arab American and Muslim communities could be decisive.
With less than two weeks until Election Day, Trump has gained a slight edge nationally, leading Harris 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday. This marks a shift from August, when Harris held a lead, now placing the race within the margin of error.
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