Hurricane experts at AccuWeather are closely tracking a cluster of showers and thunderstorms near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico that may develop into the next tropical storm of the season, potentially named Sara.
“Get ready for Sara. We expect the next tropical storm to develop in the Caribbean this week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The development process is already underway. There are showers and thunderstorms around Hispaniola that will move west. The storms will get a boost on Wednesday when wind shear starts to fade away. A front will provide more upward motion by midweek, helping these storms organize.”
READ: NHC: Tropical Development Possible In Western Caribbean Sea
AccuWeather has issued a high risk for tropical development in the western Caribbean between November 14-18. Meteorologists note that wind shear north of the Caribbean could initially hinder the storm’s movement, but this natural barrier may weaken, allowing the storm to move northward later in November.
Communities across Central America, southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico are advised to stay vigilant as tropical activity increases, with the potential for heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms beginning midweek.
“Don’t let your guard down just because the calendar says we’re heading into mid-November. Conditions and water temperatures in the tropics are still primed for tropical storms to form in the final weeks of hurricane season,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “History shows that Florida faces a higher risk of tropical impacts than any other state during the month of November.”
AccuWeather’s late October forecast predicted a final burst of tropical activity, with one to three named storms expected in November. The month has already seen Subtropical Storm Patty and Hurricane Rafael develop in its first week.
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“We still have exceptionally warm waters heading into mid-November. Ocean heat content, or the depth that warm waters reach beneath the surface, is at record levels for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico,” said DaSilva. “Ocean heat content is near record levels for mid-November in the Caribbean. These warm waters will provide extra fuel for any storms that can develop in the next few weeks.”
Rafael’s Remnants Bring Flooding Threat to Gulf Coast
The remnants of Hurricane Rafael have weakened, but a surge of tropical moisture is bringing heavy rain to the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather experts say Rafael’s circulation dissipated over the central Gulf of Mexico, but lingering moisture could still cause issues along the coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle, with rough surf and rip currents expected through Monday night.
Moisture from Rafael intensified rainfall over the weekend, leading to localized flash flooding. What remains of the storm is forecast to meander over the western Gulf, but increasing wind shear will likely prevent further strengthening.
“We believe that some of Rafael’s remaining moisture will be drawn northward into the central Gulf Coast region around the middle of the week as yet another non-tropical feature — a cold front — moves from west to east over the lower Mississippi Valley,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman. “The new cool front will also be more progressive than the one that unloaded as much as 8 inches of rain Saturday. Although downpours can produce minor flooding, persistent downpours aren’t expected, and widespread flooding is not anticipated.”
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