AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane before reaching Cuba and could bring impacts to the U.S. Gulf Coast by the weekend.
Rafael is currently churning in the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to track near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through Tuesday night, bringing damaging winds, heavy rain, and storm surge.
Rapid Intensification Expected:
AccuWeather experts anticipate Rafael will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph. They also warn that it could even intensify into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) before reaching Cuba.
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Gulf Coast Impacts:
The storm’s eventual track and intensity in the Gulf of Mexico remain somewhat uncertain, but AccuWeather predicts the center of the storm could make landfall anywhere between the Florida Peninsula and the upper Texas coast by the weekend.
“People in the Caribbean islands and the southern Florida Keys need to prepare for impacts,” warned Porter. “Rafael is showing clear signs of an organizing and intensifying storm,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “We cannot rule out the possibility that Rafael could intensify into a major hurricane before reaching Cuba. That would be Category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.”
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Potential Impacts:
- Jamaica and Cayman Islands: Damaging winds, flooding rain, and a few feet of storm surge are expected through Tuesday night.
- Cuba: Hurricane conditions are expected, with the potential for a major hurricane landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and significant storm surge are all possible.
- Florida Keys: Rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible, with tropical storm conditions possible depending on the storm’s track.
- Gulf Coast: The exact impacts on the Gulf Coast are still uncertain, but heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding are possible, especially if the storm intensifies and tracks closer to the eastern side of the forecast cone.
AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael and urge residents in potentially affected areas to stay informed and prepare for potential impacts.
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