Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a hurricane soon, prompting hurricane warnings for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.
Latest Update:
Rafael continues to show signs of strengthening, with improved structure and an eyewall developing. The storm is currently packing winds of 45 mph and is moving north-northwestward at 12 mph.
Forecast Track:
Rafael is expected to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. After crossing Cuba, it is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico, but the long-range track remains uncertain.
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Intensity and Impacts:
- Rapid Intensification Expected: Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands, with further strengthening expected before it reaches Cuba.
- Hurricane Conditions: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
- Tropical Storm Conditions: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight into Tuesday morning, and in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.
- Heavy Rainfall: Heavy rainfall is expected across Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, with potential for flooding and mudslides. Rainfall will spread north into Florida and the Southeast U.S. by mid to late week.
- Storm Surge: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Watches and Warnings:
- Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands, Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
- Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica, Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.
- Tropical Storm Watch: Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas, Lower and Middle Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas.
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