The disturbance churning in the Caribbean Sea has officially become Tropical Depression Eighteen, and forecasters warn it could rapidly intensify into a hurricane, posing a serious threat to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the system to a tropical depression after data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirmed a well-defined center and organized deep convection.
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Projected Path and Strengthening:
The depression is expected to turn northwestward and move near Jamaica tonight, the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. Steady strengthening is anticipated, with the system likely becoming a tropical storm later today and potentially a hurricane by Wednesday.
After reaching the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast track becomes less certain. However, the NHC is closely monitoring its potential to impact the northern Gulf Coast later in the week.
Watches and Warnings:
- Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands
- Hurricane Watch: Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
- Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica
- Tropical Storm Watch: Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
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Potential Impacts:
- Jamaica: Tropical storm conditions expected tonight, with heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
- Cayman Islands: Hurricane conditions expected on Tuesday, with dangerous storm surge possible.
- Cuba: Hurricane conditions possible in western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and flooding are also a concern.
- Florida Keys: Tropical storm watches may be issued later today.
- Gulf Coast: Potential impacts later this week, but the long-range forecast remains uncertain.
Heavy Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall is expected across the western Caribbean, with the potential for flooding and mudslides in Jamaica and Cuba. This heavy rain could spread northward into Florida and the southeastern U.S. by mid to late week.
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