The 2024 presidential election has seen a surge in third-party and independent candidates, with figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein vying for a spot on the ballot. These candidates, driven by a range of ideological and personal motivations, are positioning themselves as viable alternatives to the traditional two-party system.
Kennedy, in particular, has garnered significant attention, with his high-profile name recognition and controversial stance on issues like vaccine safety.
A recent poll conducted by The Cook Political Report/BSG/GS Strategy Group has revealed that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party hopefuls are poised to shake up the race in several key battleground states.
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The findings suggest that these alternative contenders could siphon crucial votes away from both major party candidates, potentially altering the balance of power in the Electoral College.
The survey focused on seven crucial battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have historically been the epicenter of fiercely contested elections, and the 2024 race is expected to be no exception.
The poll results indicate that the inclusion of third-party candidates on the ballot could significantly alter the dynamics in these swing states. In several instances, Trump’s lead over Biden grows when Kennedy, West, and Stein are factored into the equation, while in others, the former president’s advantage is diminished.
Arizona
In Arizona, Trump’s lead over Biden expands from one to four points when the third-party candidates are included, with Kennedy garnering 10% of the vote.
Georgia
Similarly, in Georgia, Trump’s advantage increases from three to four points when the alternative contenders are added to the mix, with Kennedy capturing 10% of the vote.
Michigan
In Michigan, Trump’s lead over Biden grows from two to three points when the third-party candidates are factored in, with Kennedy securing 7% of the support.
Nevada
In Nevada, the poll found that Kennedy was able to capture 10% of the vote, but this did not significantly impact the margin between Trump and Biden, who remained tied in the state.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Trump’s lead over Biden widens from seven to eight points when the third-party candidates are included, with Kennedy earning 8% of the vote.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, the presence of the third-party candidates did not alter the margin between Trump and Biden, who remained locked in a tight race.
Wisconsin
Similarly, in Wisconsin, the addition of the third-party candidates did not change the dynamic, with Trump and Biden remaining tied in the state.
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The Biden campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and other outside groups have ramped up efforts to combat the influence of third-party candidates in 2024. Concerned that their presence on the ballot could siphon more votes from the president than from Trump, these entities have launched initiatives to counter the perceived threat.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign has largely remained silent on the issue, perhaps recognizing the potential benefits of the third-party candidates’ participation. With the possibility of split Democratic votes, the former president’s team may be content to let the alternative contenders continue to shape the narrative.
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