The Assad regime in Syria is confronting its gravest crisis since the start of the Syrian civil war, as widespread collapses of regime forces and insufficient external support threaten its survival.
In the past 24 hours, opposition groups have seized significant territory, exposing the regime’s inability to mount an effective defense and raising questions about its future.
Key opposition forces, including local groups in southwestern Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Fateh Mubin Operations Room, have made rapid advances against Assad’s forces.
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The regime’s units are reportedly disbanding or retreating in the face of the coordinated offensive, leaving vast areas vulnerable to opposition control.
The speed of the opposition’s territorial gains reflects the severity of the regime’s collapse. Assad’s forces are reportedly unable to form a cohesive defensive line, a scenario that one Kremlin-linked source told Bloomberg is crucial for any potential Russian intervention.
Without this line, Russia appears unlikely to offer substantial military support to bolster the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
The Assad regime has long relied on the backing of the Axis of Resistance—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—to maintain its hold on power. However, the current crisis underscores the limits of this support.
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- Iran: Tehran has pledged missiles, drones, and military advisers to assist Assad’s forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on December 4 that Iran would “consider” deploying ground forces if requested, though no such request has been made. The logistics and timing of such a deployment make it unlikely to halt the opposition’s momentum.
- Hezbollah: While Hezbollah has sent a small number of advisers to assist in key areas like Homs, it is unlikely to deploy a large ground force due to its commitments in Lebanon. The group sustained heavy losses during recent clashes with Israel, further reducing its capacity to intervene decisively in Syria.
- Russia: Despite its long-standing alliance with Assad, Moscow appears unwilling to commit additional resources unless the regime demonstrates its ability to stabilize its defenses. A source close to the Kremlin described Russia’s stance as contingent on Assad’s forces forming a defensive line, a scenario increasingly improbable as regime units disintegrate.
Iran, Iraq, and Syria convened a trilateral summit in Baghdad on December 6 to coordinate their response to Syria’s escalating crisis.
The meeting, led by Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and his counterparts from Iraq and Syria, aimed to forge a unified strategy to support Assad. However, the summit’s outcomes remain unclear, and the rapid pace of opposition advances could outstrip any coordinated response.
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The regime’s supporters face significant logistical and strategic hurdles in reversing the current opposition offensive.
While Iran’s pledge of missiles and drones could provide some immediate relief, these assets cannot hold or reclaim territory. Without a substantial ground force deployment—which appears unlikely given the constraints facing Iran and Hezbollah—the regime’s ability to stem the opposition’s advance remains in doubt.
The Assad regime’s survival hinges on its ability to stabilize the rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground. However, with opposition forces seizing territory at an unprecedented pace and external support proving insufficient, the regime’s prospects appear increasingly bleak.
Analysts warn that unless dramatic action is taken, Syria could see a complete reconfiguration of power dynamics in the coming weeks, with significant implications for the region’s stability.
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