NBC National Political reporter Steve Kornacki warned on Sunday the Democratic Party is losing its advantage in registration numbers and among Hispanic voters, which could cost Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.
Swing state polls show a tight race between Harris and former President Donald Trump, with political experts consistently noting how close the contest is. During “Meet the Press,” Kornacki stated that despite Harris’s small lead nationally over Trump, there is a pathway for Trump to win the 2024 election based on how key swing states vote.
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“If Trump gets Georgia, where he leads in the point average by a point and a half — if he gets North Carolina where he’s literally tied in the polls right now and where Trump won in 2020 — the only one of these battleground states Trump carried four years ago,” Kornacki said. “Then all Trump would need, on top of Georgia and North Carolina, would be Pennsylvania where Harris does have a small lead in the averages now. But Trump getting those three would get him to 270. So that’s the important for him and for Democrats the importance for blocking that path for Trump in Pennsylvania.”
The NBC reporter highlighted that Pennsylvania registration for Democrats has been cut “in two-thirds” since 2016, before discussing the major counties where Democrats need to perform well to win the state.
“You’re looking at party registration in Pennsylvania, and look at this: When Donald Trump first came on the scene, back in 2016, the democratic advantage and party registration in Pennsylvania was over 900,000 votes [in] 2020. Look now, in 2024, that’s been cut in two-thirds there, down to 330,000. There’s been a little bit of a boost for Democrats since Kamala Harris took over in registration, but the big picture trend has been more competitive for Republicans in party registration,” Kornacki explained.
“Believe it or not in the Trump era, there are only 10 counties in the entire state where Democrats performed better now than they did before Trump came along. However, some of these counties are very big. Focus on these four collar counties right outside Philadelphia, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks — more than a fifth of the vote statewide will come out of there,” Kornacki continued.
Kornacki added that former President Barack Obama won in Pennsylvania, noting that Democrats currently have an advantage in the suburbs. However, the NBC reporter pointed out that despite Harris’s lead with suburban, college-educated voters, Trump has made gains in rural counties and has tightened the margin in the state, as Hispanic voters are increasingly gravitating toward him.
“Some people call this the Latino belt of Pennsylvania. These are counties that have small mid-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations and we’ve been talking about Trump improving —relative to 2020 and 2016 among Hispanic voters,” Kornacki said.
“Here are some of the cities in that Latino belt of Reading, Pennsylvania — it’s 70% Latino. Now it was overwhelmingly Democratic in 2020. Joe Biden won by 45 points, but look at that,” Kornacki concluded. “That’s down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazleton, Pennsylvania, more than 60% Hispanic and Democrats won it narrowly — it’s now a double digit Trump place. Allentown has come down in its margin for Democrats.”
“Recent average polling conducted by RealClearPolling shows Trump with a slim lead of 0.06 to 1.5 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads by narrow margins of 0.7 to 1.1 points in Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. Additionally, average data indicates that the two political leaders are currently tied in Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolling.
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