A fresh Cygnal poll released Monday reveals a neck-and-neck battle in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears poised for a strong showing against Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
Conducted February 26-27 with 600 likely voters, the survey—carrying a ±3.98% margin of error—highlights Sears’ favorability edge and a political climate tilting in her favor, even as Spanberger clings to a slim lead.
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Sears trails Spanberger 42% to 48%, a six-point gap mirroring Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 Virginia win, signaling a competitive race under President Donald Trump’s shadow.
But the generic ballot tightens further—Democrats lead Republicans just 47% to 44%—and undecided voters on the named ballot favor a generic GOP candidate by over 2:1, offering Sears a golden opportunity to surge.
“The governor’s race is tight as the environment favors Sears,” said Cygnal President Brent Buchanan, pointing to her potential breakout.
Voter sentiment leans positive, with 52% believing Virginia is on the right track—51% among independents—bolstering Sears’ case. Her favorability shines brighter: 37% view her favorably against 22% unfavorably (+15 net), doubling Spanberger’s +8 (likely 40% favorable, 32% unfavorable, based on the net figure).
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Among swing voters, Sears’ edge balloons to +25, while Spanberger’s shrinks to +4, a sign of the Republican’s broader appeal. Sears also narrows the gap with non-white voters, trailing a generic GOP candidate by just 2 points, while Spanberger lags a generic Democrat by 8—a vulnerability Buchanan flagged as “a key opportunity.”
Trump’s influence looms large, with his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—co-led by Elon Musk—enjoying 71% support for streamlining federal bloat. That backing spikes to 76% among independents and 78% among swing voters, with even 46% of Democrats and 60% of federal employee households on board.
“DOGE’s purpose is supported by a huge majority,” Buchanan noted, tying it to a GOP-friendly tide Sears could ride.
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The poll, blending text-to-web and live phone interviews, weighted responses to mirror 2025’s electorate. Spanberger’s early lead holds, but Sears’ favorables and undecideds’ GOP lean suggest a volatile race.
With primaries June 17 and Trump’s presidency shaping the backdrop, Virginia’s gubernatorial showdown is heating up—and Sears is closing in.
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