Russia’s recent withdrawal from key bases in northern Syria is reshaping the region’s power dynamics, leaving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) increasingly exposed to ongoing and potential Turkish offensives. The move marks a significant loss of Russian influence in Syria and is likely to heighten the SDF’s vulnerability in its fight for territorial stability.
According to the ISW, Russian forces have vacated several bases in the Manbij and Kobani areas amid a Turkish-backed offensive targeting the SDF. Reports suggest that Russia may soon withdraw from its last major base in Qamishli, further reducing its foothold in northern Syria.
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Unspecified agreements have reportedly secured Russian operations in Tartus and Hmeimim, two key bases in western Syria, but Qamishli was notably absent from these negotiations.
Turkey has indicated it would “support” Russia’s consolidation at Hmeimim and Tartus, signaling a lack of backing for Russian operations in other areas of northern Syria.
Russia’s presence in northern Syria had acted as a counterbalance to Turkish-backed forces, often blocking offensives in SDF-controlled areas like Tel Rifaat and Manbij. However, Turkish-backed forces have recently captured these regions, a shift made possible by the diminishing Russian presence.
The loss of Russia’s physical presence and influence removes a significant obstacle to further Turkish operations against the SDF. This development increases the likelihood of expanded Turkish offensives in SDF-controlled areas and raises the prospect of a Turkish campaign aimed at dismantling the SDF altogether.
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Turkey’s military ambitions in northern Syria, supported by groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), have gained momentum with Russia’s retreat. The absence of Russian forces in the region allows Turkey to pursue its objectives with less resistance, including the possibility of seizing more SDF-controlled territory.
Russia’s decision to withdraw comes amid its broader geopolitical challenges, including its military commitments in Ukraine and strained relations with Turkey over Syria. This development has effectively shifted the balance of power in northern Syria, leaving the SDF reliant on limited US support and increasingly vulnerable to Turkish military pressure.
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The ongoing realignment of power in northern Syria underscores the fragility of the region’s security. With Russia’s withdrawal, the SDF faces significant challenges in maintaining control of its territory against Turkish-backed offensives.
This evolving dynamic raises critical questions about the future of US policy in Syria and the fate of the SDF in the face of mounting pressure from Turkey and its allies.
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