Russian forces are making continued advances in the border region between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, with new movements threatening to pressure Ukrainian defenses around Velyka Novosilka.
Recent reports indicate that Russian troops have gained ground northwest of Vuhledar and south of Velyka Novosilka, signaling a renewed offensive in the area.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted on November 4 that Russian forces had captured the settlement of Shakhtarske, located northeast of Velyka Novosilka. Following this, Russian sources claimed further progress north and west of Shakhtarske, as tactical ground assaults resumed in the region in mid-October 2024.
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On November 11, Russian military bloggers reported that Russian troops, including elements of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (part of the Eastern Military District), raised a flag in the southern part of Makarivka, a village south of Velyka Novosilka. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed renewed attacks in the vicinity, targeting areas near Makarivka, Novodarivka, Rivnopil, and Zeleny Pol.
These developments suggest a coordinated Russian effort to push towards Velyka Novosilka from the south and southwest. However, any significant advance would require Russian forces to capture heavily fortified settlements along the way, including Blahodatne, Neskuchne, and Vremivka. Ukrainian forces are expected to put up a strong defense, making progress for Russian troops costly and time-consuming.
Despite these advances, the pace of Russia’s offensive in western Donetsk Oblast remains moderate, casting doubt on the feasibility of a rapid mechanized maneuver to encircle Ukrainian units. Over the past five weeks, Russian forces have advanced approximately 10 kilometers from the Vuhledar-Prechystivka line. At this current rate, Ukrainian troops are likely to have sufficient time to execute a tactical withdrawal if needed, minimizing the risk of encirclement.
Even if Russian forces manage to eliminate the Ukrainian salient around Kurakhove, it is unlikely to trigger a broader collapse of the Ukrainian frontline in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian units are well-positioned to fall back to defensible locations further west, preserving their combat effectiveness.
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The slow and grinding nature of Russia’s assault in western Donetsk Oblast is draining Russian manpower and resources, raising questions about the sustainability of their offensive operations. Should the Russian advance culminate without achieving a decisive breakthrough, it could provide Ukrainian forces with a chance to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in the weeks ahead.
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