ISIS is reportedly showing signs of regaining strength in Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to a report by The New York Times.
While not yet at the height of their power from the 2010s, ISIS has increased the frequency and intensity of their attacks, as reported by United Nations and U.S. officials to the NYT on Wednesday. A key concern is the potential for ISIS fighters to break out of prisons across Syria, where an estimated 9,000 to 10,000 Islamic State fighters and approximately 40,000 family members are detained, primarily in Northeast Syria.
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Bashar al-Assad was removed from power in December 2024 by a rebel group led by the Islamic group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with support from some Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces. An interim government has been formed from the rebel leadership.
The NYT report cites an anonymous U.S. defense department official who stated that ISIS has claimed responsibility for 294 attacks in 2024, a significant increase from the 121 attacks claimed in 2023.
The United Nations’ Islamic State monitoring committee’s estimate is around 400 attacks, with other observers in Syria suggesting an even higher number.
Experts have expressed concern about the potential danger posed by the large number of experienced fighters held in Syrian prisons. Colin Clarke, head of research for the Soufan Group, warned the NYT about the potential impact of even a single major attack: “One big attack in Damascus against foreigners or expats and everybody’s going to change how they view it, so we need to be cautious.”
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The NYT notes the presence of approximately 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, stationed in the northeast with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and in the south at the al-Tanf base. Many of the SDF bases are used to detain ISIS members.
Furthermore, Turkish-backed militias are conducting incursions in the north, diverting the SDF’s attention and potentially weakening security at the prison camps.
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