Massachusetts, long hailed as a hub of educational excellence and technological innovation, is facing a growing crisis – the mass exodus of its residents.
A recent study conducted by researchers at the Boston University Questrom School of Business has uncovered staggering figures that paint a concerning picture of the state’s demographic shifts.
The study, led by BU lecturer Mark Williams and two graduate students, delved deep into government datasets to uncover the true scale of Massachusetts’ outmigration problem.
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The findings are nothing short of startling. Over the last decade, the state’s annual net outmigration has soared by an astonishing 1,100%, reaching a staggering 39,000 people in 2021.
The projections only get more dire, with the researchers estimating that this figure could skyrocket to 96,000 by 2030.
The financial implications of this exodus are equally alarming. During the 2020-21 tax year alone, Massachusetts lost a staggering $4.3 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI) and $213.7 million in tax revenue due to residents leaving the state.
And the future looks even more bleak, with the study projecting that by 2030, the state could be hemorrhaging as much as $19.2 billion in AGI and $961 million in lost tax revenue.
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The study’s findings reveal that the outmigration is not limited to a specific segment of the population. In fact, the largest group of departing residents are those aged 26 to 34 – the prime of their working lives. Even more concerning is the fact that the majority of those leaving earn well above the state’s average income, meaning Massachusetts is losing its most valuable and productive citizens.
Destination States: Where Are They Going?
The study paints a clear picture of where Massachusetts’ residents are headed.
The top five destination states are Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas – all of which offer a more favorable tax environment and lower cost of living compared to the Bay State.
The researchers identified three primary factors driving the outmigration: high-income taxes, exorbitant housing costs, and rising healthcare expenses. These findings echo the sentiments of many former Massachusetts residents, who cite the state’s high cost of living and burdensome tax policies as key reasons for their departure.
The implications of this outmigration crisis extend far beyond the individual level. As the state’s population and tax base shrink, it will become increasingly challenging for policymakers to maintain the high-quality public services and infrastructure that have long been a hallmark of Massachusetts. This, in turn, could further exacerbate the problem, as businesses and residents continue to seek greener pastures elsewhere.
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The study also pointed out that population growth in Massachusetts in 2023 was an “anemic” .27%, or half the national average. Florida, meanwhile, is growing at three times the national average.
The Massachusetts outmigration crisis is not an isolated incident. Other blue states, such as New York and California, are grappling with similar challenges as residents seek out more favorable economic and political environments.
This trend has broader implications for the country as a whole, as the redistribution of population could lead to shifts in congressional representation and the balance of power in the political landscape.
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