Hurricane Rafael is rapidly gaining strength as it approaches western Cuba, with forecasters predicting it could be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today.
Strengthening Storm:
Rafael is showing signs of significant intensification, with very cold cloud tops and strong convective banding features. Hurricane Hunter aircraft have observed a developing eyewall and a rapidly falling central pressure. The storm is currently packing winds of 80 knots (92 mph).
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Forecast Track:
Rafael is moving northwestward at 12 knots (14 mph) and is expected to continue on this track, crossing western Cuba and moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night. The long-range track forecast remains uncertain, with the possibility of the storm turning towards the western Gulf of Mexico in 4 to 5 days.
Potential Impacts:
- Cuba: Rafael is expected to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth later today. Damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are expected.
- Florida Keys: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today.
- Northern Gulf Coast: It is still too early to determine the potential impacts on the northern Gulf Coast.
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Heavy Rainfall:
Heavy rain is expected across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, through early Thursday. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in higher terrain areas.
Stay Informed:
Residents in potentially affected areas should monitor the storm’s progress closely and heed any advisories issued by local officials. It is important to have a hurricane plan in place and be prepared for potential impacts.
Previous Report: Tropical Storm Rafael has intensified into a hurricane, posing a significant threat to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The storm is expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves to these areas.
Hurricane Rafael:
Rafael is currently packing winds of 70 knots (80 mph) and is moving northwestward at 11 knots (13 mph). The storm is expected to continue on this track, passing through the Cayman Islands in the next few hours and then crossing western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon.
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Rapid Intensification:
Rafael is located in an environment conducive to further strengthening. Forecasters anticipate rapid intensification, with the storm potentially reaching Category 2 strength (winds of 96-110 mph) before reaching Cuba.
Potential Impacts:
- Cayman Islands: Hurricane conditions, including damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves, are expected within the next 12 hours.
- Cuba: Hurricane conditions are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
- Florida Keys: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Keys beginning Wednesday.
- Northern Gulf Coast: It is still too early to determine the potential impacts on the northern Gulf Coast, but residents should monitor the storm’s progress.
Heavy Rainfall:
Heavy rain is expected across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba, through early Thursday. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in higher terrain areas.
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