The Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have provided new insights into Iran’s actions abroad, particularly those that undermine regional stability and pose a threat to US forces and interests.
The latest Iran report sheds light on Iran’s ongoing activities, which include supporting its network of proxy groups, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance, as they carry out operations across the Middle East.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as a transnational coalition led by Iran, which includes state, semi-state, and non-state actors working together to challenge US influence in the Middle East and target Israel.
Read: Iran Hacked Trump’s 2024 Campaign, U.S. Intelligence Agencies Confirm
Iran provides these groups with military, financial, and political backing in exchange for influence and control, aiming to erode American presence in the region and eventually destroy Israel. This network remains a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy.
CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran’s most likely response to ongoing conflicts in the region would be a drone and missile strike targeting Israel.
This follows remarks by Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, who stated on August 26 that Iran and its Axis of Resistance would retaliate against Israel for recent actions. Iranian leaders have reiterated their intent to respond to the death of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, signaling that future attacks are imminent.
Recent assessments suggest that Iran may use Hezbollah’s August 24-25 attack on Israel as a form of reconnaissance to better plan future strikes.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that Hezbollah launched only half the munitions it intended during its latest operation. This tactic may indicate Iran is gathering information on Israel’s air defenses and gauging its redlines, thereby refining its strategy for a more effective follow-up strike.
Related: Israel Launches Preemptive Strikes Against Hezbollah Amid Escalating Tensions
Ceasefire Negotiations and Broader Regional Implications
Iranian officials are also engaged in ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel, with mediation efforts involving Qatar and Egypt. Despite this diplomatic push, hostilities continue, including a rocket fired by Hamas at Tel Aviv on August 25. Israeli forces have responded with airstrikes targeting Hamas infrastructure as they advance deeper into Gaza.
The report notes that the breakdown of law and order in Gaza, compounded by the intensifying conflict, has severely limited the ability of humanitarian aid groups to deliver food and medical supplies.
The United Nations has reported significant challenges in meeting the region’s needs, exacerbated by damaged infrastructure and limited border crossings.
US Response and Diplomatic Engagement
In response to the rising tensions, US military leaders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown Jr., have met with political and military leaders in Egypt and Israel to discuss regional security and efforts to prevent further escalation. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also reaffirmed US support for Israel, emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense amid growing threats from Iran and its proxies.
As Iran and its Axis of Resistance continue to shape the conflict dynamics in the Middle East, regional stability and US interests remain at risk.
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