In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has emerged as a formidable contender, challenging former President Donald Trump’s dominance.
With the New Hampshire primary less than a month away, Haley’s surge in the Granite State has caught the attention of political observers.
A recent poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) revealed a significant jump in support for Nikki Haley.
Compared to the previous poll in September, Haley’s popularity has doubled, reaching an impressive 30% in New Hampshire.
This surge can be attributed, in part, to the critical endorsement she received from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. However, despite her gains, Donald Trump remains the frontrunner with a steady lead in the mid-40s.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire has disrupted the Republican field and positioned her as the clear alternative to Trump.
While Trump’s supporters seem unfazed by his ongoing legal challenges, a majority of Christie supporters indicate they would vote for Biden if Trump becomes the Republican nominee.
The Democratic Party appears unified behind President Joe Biden. Although some New Hampshire Democratic voters may express frustration with Biden’s decision to skip the primary, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on his lead.
In hypothetical three-way contests, Biden maintains a strong hold on Democratic primary voters, with 92% indicating they would vote for him in the general election.
The Importance of Undeclared Voters
One factor that adds unpredictability to the New Hampshire primary is the presence of undeclared voters. These voters can choose which party’s primary to participate in on election day.
With approximately 344,000 undeclared voters compared to 270,000 Republicans and 265,000 Democrats, candidates with crossover appeal, like Haley, may find an advantage over more polarizing figures such as Trump.
Haley’s Momentum and Challenges Ahead
While Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is impressive, political observers remain cautious about the extent of her success. Haley’s campaign has gained significant momentum over the past months, but she still faces an uphill battle against Trump’s formidable lead.
Nevertheless, as the underdog, Haley’s expectations are appropriately lower, giving her room to continue building her momentum and making inroads with voters.
The Republican Field: Christie and DeSantis
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been making gradual gains in New Hampshire, positioning himself as a potential alternative to both Haley and Trump.
With 12% support, Christie has carved out a niche among anti-Trump voters. On the other hand, former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen a decline in support, with just 6% of respondents indicating a preference for him. Christie’s presence in the contest adds to the fragmentation of the non-Trump vote.
The General Election Outlook
In a hypothetical general election matchup, Trump trails Biden by 10 points in New Hampshire. Biden’s support among Democrats and undeclared voters gives him a significant advantage over Trump, who struggles to carry the same level of support within his party.
However, these results are subject to change, and it is crucial to consider the dynamic nature of the political landscape leading up to the general election.
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