The GOP now holds a 10-point advantage over Democrats in the upcoming congressional elections, according to one recent poll.
Rasmussen Reports, a right-leaning pollster, released a survey Friday that found when likely voters were given the generic choice of voting either Republican or Democrat in November, 49 percent of respondents opted for the GOP candidate.
That compared to just 39 percent who indicated they would go with the Democrat.
Republicans actually gained two points from the last time Rasmussen asked the question earlier this month.
“The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents,” Rasmussen noted of its poll.
The findings suggest that the intense focus by Democrats and the national media on the Jan. 6 committee hearings, the overturning of the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court ruling, and advocating for gun control in the wake of recent mass shootings is not panning out as liberals had hoped.
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The poll included some surprise results.
One is that Democrats appear lukewarm toward their own candidates.
“While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate,” Rasmussen noted, “just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate.”
And independents, after helping Joe Biden win in 2020, have had a change of heart.
“Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided,” Rasmussen observed.
Another surprise among demographic groups is that 27 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minorities – primarily Hispanics – would vote for the Republican if the elections were held today, according to Rasmussen. Those outcomes suggest the Democrats’ attempts to smear Republicans as “white supremacists” are also failing.
The poll also indicates that the Democrats, who for decades claimed to be the party of the working class, are now the party of the wealthy.
Rasmussen noted: “Republicans lead 52%-37% among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have the same 15-point advantage, 52% to 37%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000.”
Rasmussen’s spread in favor of Republicans is the largest among the several national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics.
But it’s arguably the most comprehensive poll, with the largest sample size – 2,500 respondents – and includes “likely,” and not just registered, voters, as other pollsters do.
Rasmussen aligns with another big poll – 1,085 respondents – of likely voters by the Trafalgar Group. That survey had the Republicans ahead by eight points.
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Other polls show the generic ballot to be much closer. But those surveys include registered voters, not people who necessarily will show up at the polls in November.
Overall, according to Real Clear Politics, the average of all those polls has the GOP ahead by 2.5 points. The Republicans have led in the average of those surveys since mid-November.
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