Tropical Storm Rafael is currently churning in the central Gulf of Mexico, but forecasters expect it to weaken over the next few days due to unfavorable conditions.
Rafael is experiencing wind shear, which is disrupting its structure and preventing it from strengthening. Dry air is also hindering the storm’s ability to maintain thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center predicts Rafael will weaken to a post-tropical remnant low within 48 hours.
The storm is currently meandering over the central Gulf and is expected to turn southward by the middle of next week.
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While Rafael poses no direct threat to land, it is generating swells that are increasing the risk of rip currents along the Gulf Coast. Additionally, moisture from Rafael interacting with a front will bring heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding to parts of the Upper Texas Coast, Southwest Louisiana, and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure near the Bahamas has a low chance of development over the next few days. The system is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Bahamas through Sunday, regardless of whether it develops further.
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The Hurricane Center gives this system a 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 10% chance of formation within the next 7 days.
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