The race for outgoing Democratic Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat appears to be in a dead heat between candidates across the aisle, according to a Wednesday poll.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the clear frontrunner of her party’s Senate primary, is neck and neck with all three of the prominent Republicans running for the seat, according to a Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey. The Democrat was losing to former Detroit Police Chief James Craig by 2 points, tied with former Rep. Peter Meijer and up by only 1 point against former Rep. Mike Rogers.
“All three are essentially a toss-up. We see James Craig like 2 points ahead of Slotkin at this stage, simply because of I think increased name ID out of southeast Michigan,” Richard Czuba, pollster for Glengariff Group, the firm that conducted the poll, told The Detroit News. “But we see with the other two that it’s dead even. They’re all within the margin of error.”
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Stephen Schumacher, senior advisor to the Craig campaign, believes the poll’s results indicate he is the best-positioned Republican to win the general election.
“It’s a tight race, but the recent results show Chief Craig is the candidate best positioned to take on Slotkin, and our message is resonating with the people of Michigan,” Schumacher told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement.
However, a significant portion of the likely general election voters polled remained undecided in each matchup, according to the survey.
Previous polling indicated Slotkin had larger leads over the Republican candidates, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.
“Between the lawlessness at the border and massive increase in prices at the hands of Joe Biden and Elissa Slotkin, Michiganders are sick and tired of their complete and utter failures,” Chris Gustafson, communications director for the Rogers campaign, told the DCNF in a statement. “Mike Rogers is committed to getting America back on track, meeting with voters all across Michigan, and has already collected the signatures required to get on the ballot. Mike is the only candidate in the GOP field to have never lost an election.”
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Meijer, who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021, lost a second term after being primaried by a Trump-endorsed candidate in 2022. Craig ran in the Republican primary for governor the same year, but only received 2% support.
Rogers served in the House from 2001 to 2015, leaving the lower chamber when he decided not to seek reelection. The National Republican Senatorial Committee recruited Rogers for the seat, along with other Republicans in Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
All three of the Republicans recently jumped in the race, while Slotkin has been campaigning since February 2023. The Democrat has since brought in $8.9 million, and has $5.2 million cash on hand, according to the most recent data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
The seat is currently in the “Lean D” column in The Cook Political Report’s analysis, along with other contentious Senate races in Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The last time Michigan had a Republican senator was with Stabenow’s predecessor, Spencer Abraham, who left office in 2001.
The Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll surveyed 600 likely general election voters in Michigan between Jan. 2 and Jan. 6 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
Neither Slotkin nor Meijer’s campaigns immediately responded to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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