In a race that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a 49% tie in Pennsylvania, according to a new Marist poll released Thursday. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the largest swing state in the country and has historically played a pivotal role in deciding presidential victories.
The poll reveals that Trump holds a four-point edge among independent voters, a critical group that could sway the election either way. Pennsylvania’s significance is underscored by its history, having helped secure electoral victories for President Joe Biden, Trump, and former President Barack Obama.
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In a broader view, Harris holds a razor-thin advantage of 0.1 points across all seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolling (RCP) averages. However, her lead over Trump in Pennsylvania is slightly larger at 0.7 points, per RCP.
A deeper dive into the Marist poll shows a clear gender divide, with Trump commanding 54% of the male vote, while Harris leads among women with 55%. Racial demographics also reflect stark contrasts: Trump is leading among white voters with 51%, while Harris dominates among nonwhite voters with 59% support.
These divides echo the 2020 election exit polls, where Trump led Biden among white and male voters, while Biden captured the majority of support from nonwhite voters and women.
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Harris, while locked in a tight race in Pennsylvania, is performing slightly better in other Rust Belt states. The Marist poll shows her narrowly leading in Wisconsin with 50% to Trump’s 49%, and a stronger lead in Michigan, where 52% of likely voters back her compared to 47% for Trump.
The Marist poll surveyed 1,354 adults between September 12 and 17, with a margin
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