Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has fallen behind his Republican opponent, Austin Theriault, in the closely contested race for Maine’s 2nd congressional district, according to an Axis Research report published by Politico on Wednesday. The outcome of this race could play a pivotal role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
With the Republican Party currently holding a narrow 221-to-214 majority in the House, the race between three-term incumbent Golden and former NASCAR driver and state legislator Theriault has gained national attention. According to the Axis Research study, which compiled three polls of likely 2024 voters, Theriault has shifted the dynamics of the race. After trailing Golden by ten percentage points in July, he is now leading by two points as of mid-October.
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“This is one of the most competitive races in the country,” said Erin Covey, editor of U.S. House elections at the Cook Political Report, in an interview with the Portland Press Herald. “This race could ultimately tip the balance of power to one party or the other, given the slim control of the House.”
Theriault’s surge is attributed to a significant rise in his name recognition, with 72% of Maine voters aware of him in October, compared to just 39% in July. He also enjoys a net favorable rating, while Golden has faced unfavorable media coverage, with 43% of voters hearing negative news about the incumbent and only 26% hearing positive reports.
National political trends may also be helping Theriault, with former President Donald Trump expanding his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Maine’s 2nd district from two points in July to nine points by mid-October, according to the Axis Research data.
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“I think Republicans are more confident this time because they really like their challenger,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Both sides see this as a winnable race.”
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