Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is projected to win the special election for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, defeating Democrat Gay Valimont, according to Decision Desk HQ.
The victory allows Republicans to retain control of one of the state’s most conservative strongholds in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The district, located along Florida’s western panhandle, was previously represented by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned earlier this year. Former President Donald Trump played a key role in shaping the race, publicly encouraging Patronis to run last November.
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His endorsement prompted several Republican candidates to drop out and rally behind Patronis, effectively clearing the field.
While the district has long been a Republican stronghold—Trump carried it by 37 points in 2020 and Gaetz defeated Valimont by 32 points—Democrats saw an opportunity to close the gap and invested heavily in the race.
Valimont raised an impressive $6.5 million, compared to Patronis’s $2.1 million, as part of a broader Democratic push to make inroads in conservative areas.
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The Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced a joint investment in the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts last month, aiming to capitalize on what party officials called a “moment of momentum.”
Valimont campaigned aggressively, focusing on local issues such as infrastructure, veteran services, and healthcare access.
Despite the funding advantage and national attention, the uphill battle proved too steep for Democrats in a district that remains one of Florida’s reddest.
Patronis’s win ensures continued GOP dominance in the Panhandle and reinforces Trump’s enduring influence in shaping Republican outcomes across the state.
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