Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville admitted this week that he miscalculated Kamala Harris’ chances in the 2024 presidential election, acknowledging that he overestimated Democratic strength against President Donald Trump.
During the final stretch of the election, Carville confidently predicted Harris would defeat Trump. Now, reflecting on the outcome, he concedes that his confidence was misplaced.
“The polls looked even, alright? I thought that Harris had more money. She also had more storefront locations, she had more doorknockers, definitely had better surrogates with two ex-presidents out there. Trump was going around with Scott Baio or something… And I thought a combination of all of that would be worth a point and a half. It was not,” Carville told Fox News Digital in an interview.
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Ironically, Trump ended up winning the popular vote by exactly a point and a half and secured a 312-electoral vote victory over Harris.
Carville admitted that the biggest mistake Democrats made was failing to give voters a clear reason to vote for Harris beyond simply opposing Trump.
“You relearn the oldest lesson in politics. The greatest motivator of turnout, of voting, of persuasion is a reason. If you don’t have a reason, you can’t [win],” Carville said. “People had a reason to vote for Trump. The one reason that they were looking for, I should have taken this into more account, was people wanted some change.”
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He pointed to Harris’ now-infamous appearance on “The View”, when she was asked what she would have done differently from President Joe Biden.
Her response—”There is not a thing that comes to mind.”—was, according to Carville, a major misstep.
“She completely flubs it,” Carville said. “Well, 70% of people—whether they were right or wrong—wanted something different. Well, give it to them! … [Say] anything you want other than ‘I can’t think of anything.’ Worst answer ever given. Ever given.”
Despite her defeat in 2024, Harris is still generating buzz for a 2028 presidential run, leading early Democratic primary polling—though her high name recognition may be a key factor.
There is also speculation that Harris could run for governor of California in 2026, when Gavin Newsom leaves office. Some Democratic strategists believe a return to state leadership could help rebuild her political standing ahead of another White House bid.
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When asked whether Harris should run for governor or president again, Carville was noncommittal.
“I don’t propose that somebody should or shouldn’t run for office,” he said. “If she runs for president again, she’s got to be a lot better candidate than she was in 2024. Maybe she is.”
Carville also criticized the Democratic Party’s handling of Biden’s exit from the race, arguing that Harris would have been a stronger candidate if she had competed in a full primary instead of being crowned the nominee.
“She would have been a much better candidate had Democrats held an open primary,” Carville said, taking a swipe at Democratic commentators like Bakari Sellers who dismissed the idea of allowing other candidates to compete.
But when pressed on whether he personally wants Harris to run again in 2028, Carville remained vague.
“Well, I mean, first of all, I think everybody should run,” he said. “The more, the merrier. She’s a former vice president, a former prosecutor, a former state attorney general… She certainly passes the test of who could run. But it would be very, very difficult for her to win the nomination.”
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Carville wrapped up the interview with a lesson for Democrats: Admitting when you’re wrong is better than being predictable.
“I was wrong,” he said. “It was a mistake. But the public will never care if you’re wrong. When they’ll turn on you is when you’re boring or predictable.”
He suggested that Democrats need to move beyond stale political messaging if they hope to rebuild momentum for 2028.
“The public is just tired of talking points. They’re just worn out,” Carville said. “If you don’t say something in a colorful way that sticks with people, you know what you’re saying? It’s vapid stuff.”
As the Democratic Party looks toward 2028, Carville’s honest postmortem serves as a warning: Without a compelling message, better candidates, and a real primary process, they could face another defeat. Whether Harris will be part of that future remains uncertain.
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