The recent missile attack by Iran on Israel has raised tensions in the region, prompting Israel to consider its response.
Iran launched a large-scale aerial assault on Israel over the weekend, involving more than 300 drones and missiles.
The attack was described by President Joe Biden as “unprecedented.”
In response, Israel has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran. However, the timing and extent of Israel’s retaliation remain uncertain.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence platform Rane Network, Israel is seriously considering direct strikes on Iran as a way to restore deterrence.
Read: Florida Rep. Brian Mast Blasts Dems Trying To Block F-35 Sales To Israel After Iran Attacks
“Right now, they certainly are seriously considering direct strikes on Iran, because that is a clearest path back to deterrence,” Bohl told CNBC.
However, Israel must also be cautious not to escalate the situation into an overt conflict with Iran. Striking a delicate balance between a strong response and avoiding all-out war will be crucial.
Covert Escalation: Israel’s Preferred Tactic
One possible approach for Israel is a covert escalation, intensifying its shadow war with Iran without sparking an overt conflict. This tactic allows Israel to respond with greater intensity while minimizing the risk of an all-out war. The Israelis will likely be exploring ways to ramp up their covert operations against Iranian targets.
The Role of the United States
While Israel considers its response, it is important to note the role of the United States in this conflict. President Biden has expressed an “ironclad” commitment to Israel’s security against Iranian threats. However, the U.S. has made it clear that it will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The U.S. wants to de-escalate the situation, but within a higher level of escalation that is likely to persist due to the nuclear threat from Iran.
Read: White House Says Iran’s Attack On Israel Should Not Grow Into A Larger Conflict
Potential Retaliation Scenarios
Israel’s response to Iran’s attack could take various forms. It may choose to conduct targeted strikes on Iranian military installations or facilities associated with Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Israel is unlikely to attack Iranian oil facilities, as it would risk displeasing its supporters, including the United States.
David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, suggests that Israel’s immediate response may be moderate. However, he warns that within a year or 18 months, an extreme retaliation against Iran’s nuclear capacity could occur, potentially leading to a market meltdown.
Iran’s Likely Strategy
Iran, on the other hand, is likely to continue rattling the global economy. It will engage in provocative actions designed to put diplomatic pressure on Israel to de-escalate the situation.
Iran’s recent attack on Israel, as well as the seizure of an Israeli-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrate its willingness to escalate tensions and create instability in the region.
Read: Florida Rep. Mike Waltz Blasts Biden Over Foreign Policy As Iran Launched Attack On Israel
The Global Implications
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has significant global implications. Iran’s support for groups opposing Israel, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, has turned the conflict in Gaza into a proxy war. Iran’s actions also pose a threat to regional stability, as it supports militant groups in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria.
The international community is closely monitoring the situation, urging both Israel and Iran to exercise restraint. The potential for a full-scale war between the two nations raises concerns about the impact on global security and stability.
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