Tensions are escalating in the Middle East as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threaten US bases in Iraq and Syria. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a prominent militia group, issued the threat on November 4th, likely in an attempt to pressure the US to prevent potential Israeli strikes in Iraq.
The threat, made by Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s Political Council leader Sheikh Ali al Asadi, stated that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a coalition of Iranian-backed militias) would target US bases if the Iraqi government found that Israel used Iraqi airspace to attack Iran on October 25th.
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This threat highlights a key misunderstanding: the militias falsely believe that the US can control Israel’s actions. They have a history of attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for Israeli strikes, despite both Israel and the US warning Iraq that such attacks would likely provoke Israeli retaliation.
The Biden administration has reportedly informed the Iraqi government that the US cannot prevent Israeli strikes in Iraq if Iran uses Iraqi territory to attack Israel. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reportedly told Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani that Israel would almost certainly retaliate if attacked from Iraq.
Despite pressure from the US to curb militia attacks, Prime Minister Sudani has so far been unable to prevent them. This was further underscored by a recent statement from Ansar Allah al Awfiya leader Ali al Fatlawi, who asserted the Iraqi militias’ right to support Iran’s response against Israel.
The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation if Iranian-backed militias carry out their threats against US bases.
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