There are increasing signs that Iran is actively seeking to incite sectarian violence in Syria as part of a broader effort to weaken the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led interim government and reestablish the Axis of Resistance within the country. Recent developments suggest that Iran is escalating its rhetoric and may be organizing proxy forces to achieve its strategic objectives.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a call on December 31 for a counter-revolution in Syria, framing it as a response to what it described as the “occupation” by “takfiri terrorists.”
The term “takfiri terrorists” is often used by Iranian officials to describe Sunni militant groups, including HTS, which currently controls significant parts of northwestern Syria. This rhetoric marks a shift in Iran’s messaging, with the IRGC directly targeting the HTS-led government for the first time.
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Reports suggest that the IRGC is planning to organize and support new proxy and partner militia networks in Syria. This comes at a time when the Syrian Popular Resistance, an armed group opposing the HTS-led interim government, has announced its formation. Iranian state media has reported on the creation of such resistance groups in positive terms, signaling Tehran’s support for these movements.
Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, emphasized the strategic importance of these developments during a meeting with Oman’s foreign affairs minister. On December 31, he stated that “a new resistance has been born [in Syria] that will manifest itself in the coming years,” further underscoring Iran’s ambitions to expand its influence in the region.
Iran’s actions present a direct challenge to the HTS-led interim government, which has been maintaining control over parts of northwestern Syria. By supporting sectarian militias, Iran risks destabilizing an already fragile region, creating conditions favorable to its strategic goals but potentially exacerbating ongoing conflict.
This shift in Iranian strategy, with explicit calls for armed resistance against HTS rather than focusing solely on operations related to Israel, introduces a new dimension of tension in the Syrian conflict. The escalation could deepen sectarian divides and hinder efforts to stabilize the country.
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Iran’s increasing involvement could also have significant regional implications. A resurgence of Iranian-backed militias might provoke reactions from other regional powers, including Turkey and Gulf nations, which are opposed to Tehran’s influence in Syria. This potential for broader conflict adds complexity to an already volatile situation.
As the situation unfolds, close monitoring is essential to understand the extent of Iranian involvement and the consequences for Syria’s governance and regional stability. The developments could have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in the Middle East.
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