A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in five swing states reveals Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, while being tied in Wisconsin.
In Arizona, Trump leads with 49% support to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia, Trump has 48% support compared to Harris’ 46%. In Michigan, Trump leads with 46% to Harris’ 45%. In Pennsylvania, Trump is at 48% and Harris at 46%. In Wisconsin, both candidates are tied at 47% support.
Harris has seen an increase in support compared to President Biden’s numbers from earlier this month in all five states: four points higher in Arizona (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), five points in Georgia (41% to 46%), three points in Michigan (42% to 45%), three points in Pennsylvania (43% to 46%), and four points in Wisconsin (43% to 47%).
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“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”
Young voters have particularly shifted toward Harris, with her support increasing by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier this month.
Regarding Harris’ potential running mate, Arizona voters favor Senator Mark Kelly (36%), 27% of Michigan voters prefer Gretchen Whitmer, 40% of Pennsylvania voters support Josh Shapiro, while in Wisconsin, 14% support Bernie Sanders and 12% Pete Buttigieg.
Among Democratic voters, 42% in Arizona prefer Mark Kelly, 57% in Pennsylvania favor Josh Shapiro, and 36% in Michigan back Gretchen Whitmer. In Georgia and Wisconsin, Democratic support is split among several candidates, each garnering around 20% support.
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A majority of Democratic voters in each state believe Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. In the four U.S. Senate elections, Democratic candidates are leading their Republican counterparts:
- Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%.
- Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%.
- Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%.
- Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde, 49% to 43%.
Favorability Ratings:
Harris Favorability:
- Arizona: 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable
- Georgia: 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable
- Michigan: 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable
- Pennsylvania: 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable
- Wisconsin: 49% favorable, 50% unfavorable
Trump Favorability:
- Arizona: 49% favorable, 51% unfavorable
- Georgia: 49% favorable, 50% unfavorable
- Michigan: 48% favorable, 51% unfavorable
- Pennsylvania: 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable
- Wisconsin: 47% favorable, 53% unfavorable
Biden Approval:
- Arizona: 35% approve, 57% disapprove
- Georgia: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
- Michigan: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
- Pennsylvania: 37% approve, 55% disapprove
- Wisconsin: 39% approve, 50% disapprove
Gubernatorial Approval:
- Katie Hobbs (Arizona): 37% approve, 42% disapprove
- Brian Kemp (Georgia): 49% approve, 29% disapprove
- Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan): 49% approve, 42% disapprove
- Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania): 49% approve, 31% disapprove
- Tony Evers (Wisconsin): 44% approve, 44% disapprove
Gender Divide:
Male Voters:
- Arizona: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
- Georgia: Trump +10 (52% to 42%)
- Michigan: Trump +16 (54% to 38%)
- Pennsylvania: Trump +15 (55% to 40%)
- Wisconsin: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
Female Voters:
- Arizona: Harris +1 (46% to 45%)
- Georgia: Harris +4 (48% to 44%)
- Michigan: Harris +12 (52% to 40%)
- Pennsylvania: Harris +9 (51% to 42%)
- Wisconsin: Harris +12 (54% to 42%)
Top Issues:
Arizona: 30% immigration, 25% economy, 12% housing affordability Georgia: 41% economy, 10% immigration, 10% housing affordability Michigan: 42% economy, 11% immigration, 11% housing affordability Pennsylvania: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 7% immigration Wisconsin: 42% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration