With Election Day underway, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, has expressed confidence that the campaign has multiple pathways to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory.
However, political analyst Frank Luntz emphasized that both Harris and her opponent, former President Donald Trump, have paths that are highly dependent on winning Pennsylvania or Michigan.
“There’s no way either candidate can win without at least one of those two states. It’s absolutely necessary,” Luntz stated on CNN Tuesday.
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Luntz expressed concerns over potential disruptions and accusations on the ground, noting the parallels with the 2020 election. “It’s very concerning because it tells me that we’re going to have the same disruption that we had in 2020,” he said. Despite ongoing efforts to counter claims of interference, Luntz emphasized the importance of moving beyond polling to focus on the integrity of vote counting and verification.
“It’s a real tragedy that here’s the greatest country on the face of the Earth, with the strongest democracy, yet we seem to be going through this with a second election in a row,” he added.
When discussing potential paths to victory for each candidate, Luntz highlighted that Trump’s success may hinge on the Latino vote in Arizona and Nevada. Recent remarks made by a comedian during the Trump Madison Square Garden event have reportedly caused friction, particularly within the Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania, which could be significant for his chances there.
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Luntz noted, “For Trump, the Latino vote in Arizona and Nevada is key, as is securing support in southern Georgia and North Carolina, which are leaning Republican. He then needs just one industrial Midwestern state to complete his path.”
For Harris, Luntz observed that her campaign holds an edge in Wisconsin. “Harris simply needs to secure Pennsylvania and Michigan, and if she does that, it won’t matter what happens in the two Southern or Western states.”
Both candidates can afford to lose a key state, but they must offset that loss with strategic wins elsewhere.
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As the night progresses, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada will be essential in determining the next president, with both campaigns facing a closely watched, highly competitive election.
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