Fresh off the Democratic National Convention and with the presidential race entering its final months, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a highly competitive race, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.
Harris currently holds a narrow lead with 49% support, while Trump is close behind at 47%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each garnered 1% support.
This marks the first national survey of likely voters for the 2024 presidential election conducted by Quinnipiac, offering a fresh perspective as the campaigns heats up.
Read: New Poll Shows Trump Holds Lead In Arizona, North Carolina, And Wisconsin
The poll highlights sharp partisan divides, with 98% of Democrats backing Harris and 94% of Republicans supporting Trump. Independents are evenly split, with each candidate receiving 45% of their support.
A significant gender gap is evident, with Harris holding a 21-point lead among women (58% to 37%), while Trump leads by 18 points among men (57% to 39%).
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, the margin remains razor-thin, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%.
“With conventions concluded and debates on the horizon, the race is essentially a tie as we move toward November 5th,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Read: VP Kamala Harris And Minnesota Gov. Walz’s CNN Interview Was A Head Scratcher
Democratic National Convention Impact
Following the Democratic National Convention, 42% of likely voters said Harris’s acceptance speech had no impact on their view of her, while 32% reported a more favorable view and 20% a less favorable one.
RFK Jr. Endorsement of Trump
In the wake of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s suspension of his independent presidential campaign and endorsement of Trump, 64% of likely voters said the endorsement did not affect their view of Trump. However, 19% said it made them view Trump more favorably, while 15% viewed him less favorably.
Favorability Ratings
The poll also assessed the favorability ratings of key political figures:
- Kamala Harris: 47% favorable, 47% unfavorable.
- Donald Trump: 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable.
- Joe Biden: 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable.
- Tim Walz: 40% favorable, 32% unfavorable.
- J.D. Vance: 34% favorable, 43% unfavorable.
Leadership and Personal Traits
Voters were asked to evaluate the leadership skills and personal traits of Harris and Trump:
- Leadership skills: Trump (51%) slightly outpaces Harris (48%).
- Caring for people’s needs: Harris (50%) edges out Trump (48%).
- Inspiration: Harris (50%) leads Trump (46%).
- Ethics: Harris (51%) significantly outperforms Trump (39%).
- Mental fitness: Harris (67%) leads Trump (51%).
- Level-headedness: Harris (56%) has a clear advantage over Trump (39%).
Issue Handling
When it comes to handling key issues, voters are divided:
- Crime: Harris (49%) vs. Trump (48%).
- Russia-Ukraine war: Trump (49%) vs. Harris (47%).
- Supreme Court: Harris (49%) vs. Trump (47%).
- Israel-Hamas war: Trump (49%) vs. Harris (45%).
- Immigration: Trump (51%) vs. Harris (46%).
- Preserving democracy: Harris (50%) vs. Trump (45%).
- Economy: Trump (52%) vs. Harris (46%).
- Gun violence: Harris (51%) vs. Trump (45%).
- Inflation: Trump (52%) vs. Harris (45%).
- Abortion: Harris (55%) vs. Trump (38%).
- Climate change: Harris (59%) vs. Trump (34%).
Crisis Management
Likely voters are nearly split on who would handle a national crisis better, with 49% favoring Trump and 48% favoring Harris.
Most Important Issues
The most crucial issues for voters in deciding their presidential pick include:
- Preserving democracy (54%)
- The economy (45%)
- Supreme Court decisions (42%)
- Inflation (37%)
- Immigration (36%)
Biden’s Job Approval
President Joe Biden’s job approval stands at 45%, with 52% disapproving.
Outlook on America’s Future
Despite the contentious race, 69% of likely voters believe America’s best days are still ahead, showcasing a shared optimism across the political spectrum.
The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,611 likely voters nationwide from August 23-27, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
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