Former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza said on Wednesday that Democrats face an uphill battle to regain Senate control following Democratic New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s announcement that she would not seek reelection.
Shaheen’s decision on Wednesday to retire follows announcements by Democratic Sens. Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota, both of whom also asserted in 2025 that they would not run for reelection. Cillizza argued on his YouTube channel that the retirements significantly hurt Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate due to limited funding for key races.
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“Even if we don’t see another retirement in the Democratic side, these three retirements already, I think, have crushed the hopes of Democrats who wanted to try to win back the Senate in 2026,” Cillizza said. “And here’s why: so they need to net four seats to retake control, retake the majority. You would think, looking at 22 Republican seats up and 13 Democrat seats up, maybe this would be the cycle, but it’s not.”
“I think it’s very unlikely to be. Because, remember, there’s sort of a finite pot of money,” he continued. “Now, it’s a big finite pot of money — $150 to $200 million — but there’s a finite pot of money that gets spent on Senate races.”
Republicans are favored to keep control of the Senate for at least another two years based on their current 53-47 majority and possible flip opportunities in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and other states. Shaheen’s retirement will probably place her vacant seat in play for Senate Republicans during the 2026 midterms.
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“When you talk about Michigan and New Hampshire for sure, and you add John Ossoff in Georgia, who’s going to have a really tough race as an incumbent Democrat, you have three big challenges at this point, with maybe Minnesota in there as a fourth big challenge for Democrats,” Cillizza added. “You only really have two, Maine and North Carolina for Republicans, and remember, Democrats need to net four seats.”
“I just do not see it. I don’t see the money there, I don’t see the energy there, I don’t see the candidates there to expand the playing field, and I think that’s a major, major problem for Democrats,” he continued. “So, three months into an election cycle, I think their hopes of a Senate majority have gone poof.”
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Republican South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who is spearheading the Senate GOP’s campaign arm during the 2026 cycle, outlined a strategy to grow the party’s 53-seat majority to 55 members during the 2026 midterms at the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) weekend retreat in Florida in February, according to Punchbowl News.
Scott is reportedly prioritizing defending Republican incumbents in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio while also aiming to flip two Democratic-held seats in Michigan and Georgia.
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