As Floridians head to the polls today, the atmosphere is considerably calmer than the presidential election drama we can expect in November. The primary features the only statewide race—U.S. Senator Rick Scott’s seat.
Local races, particularly school board elections, are expected to drive voter turnout, influenced by Governor Ron DeSantis’s push for conservative victories in several districts.
U.S. Senate Overview
Senator Rick Scott is anticipated to easily secure the Republican nomination against two lesser-known challengers. Having already invested approximately $27 million—including a substantial amount of his personal wealth—Scott is preparing for a likely face-off against the Democratic frontrunner, former U.S. Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
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Mucarsel-Powell, notable for being the first Ecuadorian American and South American-born woman elected to Congress, is campaigning again after a one-term stint. She faces competition from Navy veteran Stanley Campbell, Army veteran Rod Joseph, and former state representative Brian Rush in the Democratic primary.
Congressional Races
All but one of Florida’s 28 House seats feature incumbents seeking re-election, with most expected to prevail in their primaries. The sole open seat, vacated by Republican Bill Posey, has drawn attention with former Senate President Mike Haridopolos and tech businessman John Hearton vying for the Republican nod. The Democratic side sees candidates Sandy Kennedy and Daniel McDow.
U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz’s re-election bid is also in the spotlight. Despite facing harsh campaign attacks funded by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political committee, Gaetz’s strong base in his district, which spans Pensacola and much of the Panhandle, has historically secured him robust primary victories.
According to a recent FiveThirtyEight poll, Gaetz is leading his opponent, Aaron Dimmock, by 67% to 20%.
State and Local Races
This election marks the first time Florida Democrats have contested every state legislative seat. Despite this milestone, the Republicans’ longstanding dominance in both the Senate and House is likely to continue.
Additionally, Governor DeSantis has endorsed several school board candidates, emphasizing his commitment to countering “woke” ideology in education.
Voter Engagement
As early voting wrapped up this weekend in Florida, over 1.9 million residents have already cast their ballots for Tuesday’s primary elections, according to the latest data from the state Division of Elections.
A breakdown of the numbers shows that 1,263,127 voters utilized mail-in ballots, with Democrats accounting for 553,520 of these votes, Republicans 515,532, unaffiliated voters 177,603, and third-party voters 16,472.
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Additionally, 656,110 individuals voted at early voting sites, including 392,386 Republicans, 211,503 Democrats, 47,251 unaffiliated voters, and 4,970 third-party voters.
While early voting concluded on Saturday across most states, some counties extended operations to Sunday.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
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