After a brief period of calm following Hurricane Ernesto, AccuWeather meteorologists are sounding the alarm for an increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
They anticipate 6 to 10 named storms forming between August 27th and September 30th, potentially exceeding the historical average of six storms for that period.
Factors Driving Increased Activity:
- Reduced Saharan dust and dry air: These factors, which previously limited storm development, are expected to diminish.
- Favorable conditions: Warm ocean temperatures, reduced wind shear, and decreased dry air will create a conducive environment for storm formation.
- Near-record sea surface temperatures: These conditions, coupled with high ocean heat content, will fuel storm development.
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Experts stress that the impact of hurricanes and tropical storms extends far beyond coastal areas. Inland flooding has already caused significant damage this season, with Hurricane Beryl spawning tornadoes across a vast swathe of the U.S. and Hurricane Debby causing widespread flooding.
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September. There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active.”
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Areas in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, already saturated from recent heavy rainfall, face an elevated risk of flash flooding should another tropical system bring heavy rainfall in September.
“We often see one tropical wave move off the coast of Africa every few days during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” said DaSilva. “With less Saharan dust and dry air expected in the coming weeks, we could see those tropical waves take advantage of very favorable conditions. With extremely warm water temperatures, less disruptive wind shear, and less dry air, we could see a storm organizing every few days.”
Even storms that stay hundreds of miles offshore can generate dangerous rough surf and deadly rip currents. Beachgoers are urged to be cautious even when the weather at the shore appears calm.
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Coastal communities need to be prepared for more frequent and severe storm impacts, including flooding and increased damage costs.
AccuWeather’s forecast anticipates 20 to 25 named storms and four to six direct U.S. impacts this year. Favorable conditions could even extend the season into November.
The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas have already been identified as high-risk areas for direct impacts.
“The inland impacts we’ve already seen from hurricanes this year are vivid reminder that everyone needs to be prepared across much of the eastern United States, even if they live hundreds of miles from the coast,” warned DaSilva. “Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast, but that storm spun up dozens of destructive tornadoes as it moved inland from the Gulf Coast all the way to upstate New York, more than 1,400 miles away.”
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With the peak of hurricane season approaching, it is crucial for everyone in potentially affected areas to be prepared and stay informed about developing weather conditions.
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