Florida TaxWatch, a non-profit government watchdog organization, has released its third quarterly economic commentary, “Florida Economic Forecast: 2024 – 2030 / Q3 2024,” projecting the state’s economic trajectory through the end of the decade.
The report, based on data provided in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), indicates that while Florida’s economy will continue to grow, the rapid pace seen in recent years is expected to moderate.
Florida’s economy, currently valued at nearly $1.5 trillion, has been fueled by its strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development. Despite this growth, Florida recently slipped from the 15th to the 16th largest economy in the world. This shift has prompted Florida TaxWatch to closely examine the sustainability of the state’s economic expansion.
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“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion,” said Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro. “Despite this impressive growth…Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp added, “While Florida began 2024 with strong economic growth trends that outpaced the rest of the country, it is imperative that we continue to closely monitor growth patterns every quarter and adjust government spending accordingly.”
The report analyzes several key economic indicators, including:
- Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by approximately 1.45 million people, reaching 24.8 million by 2030. However, the rate of in-migration is expected to slow, reflecting a shift in the balance between people moving to Florida (attracted by amenities, low cost of living, and no state income tax) and those moving out to states like Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
- Employment: The number of employed Floridians is projected to rise from 9.9 million in 2024 to 10.6 million in 2030. The unemployment rate is expected to fluctuate, rising to 3.9% in 2026 before decreasing to 3.6% by 2030. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 is 0.4 percentage points higher than previously forecast in Q2 2024. Currently, there are more job openings in Florida than unemployed individuals.
- GDP and Income Growth: Florida’s real GDP growth rate, which stood at 3.5% in 2024, is projected to slow to 3.0% by 2030. The narrowing gap between Florida’s GDP growth and the national real GDP growth suggests a decrease in inflation. The report also indicates that Floridians’ spending capabilities may decline or remain stagnant in the coming years, a shift from previous forecasts.
- Tourism: Florida’s tourism sector is projected to experience steady growth through 2028, with continued strong performance through 2030. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and generates $76.4 billion in employee wages. The revenue generated by tourism saves each Florida household an estimated $1,910 annually in state and local taxes.
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In summary, the Florida TaxWatch report forecasts a return to pre-pandemic growth rates for Florida’s economy over the next five years, following a period of exceptionally high growth.
The organization emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring and adjustments to government spending in response to evolving economic conditions.
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