The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly below average, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, and preparation before the storm season in Florida is essential.
The forecast released by Colorado State University on April 13, 2023, is based on a number of factors, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently below average, which is expected to suppress hurricane activity. However, atmospheric conditions are favorable for hurricane development, and there is a 60% chance of an El Niño developing this summer, which would also suppress hurricane activity.
The forecasters at Colorado State University are not the only ones predicting a slightly below-average hurricane season. AccuWeather is also predicting a slightly below-average season, with 11 to 15 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes.
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The Weather Channel is predicting a slightly above-average season, with 15 to 21 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
It is important to remember that hurricane forecasts are just that: forecasts. They are not guaranteed, and the actual number of storms could be higher or lower than predicted. It is important to be prepared for hurricanes, regardless of the forecast.
Hurricane Preparedness
The best time to prepare is before hurricane season begins. Avoid having to rush through potentially life-saving preparations by waiting until it’s too late. Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
Develop an evacuation plan
If you are at risk from hurricane impacts, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. You do not need to travel hundreds of miles. Your destination could be a friend or relative who lives in a well built home outside flood prone areas. Plan several routes. Be sure to account for your pets.
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If you don’t have a vehicle, check with local officials to see what transportation options they may have available.
Assemble disaster supplies
Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy and unpleasant aftermath. Have enough non-perishable food, water and medicine to last each person in your family a minimum of 3 days (store a longer than 3-day supply of water, if possible). Electricity and water could be out for weeks. You’ll need extra cash, a battery-powered radio and flashlights. You may need a portable crank or solar-powered USB charger for your cell phones. And lastly, don’t forget your pets!
- FEMA: Build a Kit
- FLASH: Assembling A Disaster Kitoffsite link
- Ready.gov: Prepare Your Pets for Disasters
Get an insurance checkup & document your possessions
Call your insurance company or agent and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program at floodsmart.gov. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
Take the time before hurricane season begins to document your possessions: photos, serial numbers, or anything else that you may need to provide your insurance company when filing a claim.
- FLASH Insurance Guide: If Disaster Strikes, Will You Be Covered?offsite link
- Find flood insurance at floodsmart.gov
Create a communication plan
Take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Write down on paper a list of emergency contacts, and make sure to include utilities and other critical services — remember, the internet may not be accessible during or after a storm.
Strengthen Your Home
Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees. Install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass. Seal outside wall openings. Remember, the garage door is the most vulnerable part of the home, so it must be able to withstand hurricane-force winds. Many retrofits are not as costly or time consuming as you may think. If you’re a renter, work with your landlord now to prepare for a storm.
And remember – now is the time to purchase the proper plywood, steel or aluminum panels to have on hand if you need to board up the windows and doors ahead of an approaching storm.
- FEMA: Tips to Prepare Your Home for Hurricane Season
- FLASH video: Protect Your Home from Flood Damage
Understand Forecast Information
Information provided by the NOAA
National Weather Service forecast products can tell you a lot about what is expected to happen with a storm, including the storm’s paths, rainfall amounts, wind speeds, and more. There is a lot of information available days ahead of a storm, and it is important to understand what it means.
Have trusted sources for storm information
Rely on official forecasts and well-established media partners in the Weather Enterprise. Be cautious of sensational headlines and instead look for reliable sources to determine a storm’s potential impacts.
Use the official National Hurricane Center Forecast — their hurricane specialists access a variety of data (models, aircraft, satellite) to make the most accurate forecasts possible.
Meteorologists at local NWS offices understand which locations in your area are most vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, and wind.
Always check to make sure you have the latest forecast information.
Make sure to have Wireless Emergency Alerts enabled on your phone to receive Warnings.
Know your alerts & the difference between a Watch & Warning
In general, a Watch means impacts are possible; a Warning means impacts are expected or happening. Different hazards and alerts require different responses:
- A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area, with tropical-storm-force winds beginning within the next 48 hours. Prepare by boarding up windows and moving loose items indoors, and make sure your emergency kit is ready. A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, with tropical-storm-force winds beginning within 36 hours. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure or evacuate if ordered.
- A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours, a Tropical Storm Warning means they are expected somewhere within the warning area. Remember, a tropical system does not have to reach hurricane strength to be deadly.
- A Storm Surge Watch means the possibility of life-threatening inundation generally within 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Warning means the danger of life-threatening inundation generally within 36 hours. In either case, please promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
- An Extreme Wind Warning means extreme hurricane winds (115 mph+) are imminent or happening: take immediate shelter in an interior portion of a well-built structure.
- A Flash Flood Warning means dangerous flash flooding is expected: move to higher ground, and never walk or drive through floodwater. A Flash Flood Emergency is issued for exceedingly rare situations when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage is happening or about to happen — do NOT attempt to travel unless you are under an evacuation order or your life is imminently at risk.
- A Flood Watch means flooding is possible: stay tuned to trusted news sources and be ready to seek higher ground. A Flood Warning means flooding is happening or about to happen: move to higher ground immediately.
- A Tornado Watch means a tornado is possible: know your safe place and be ready to act quickly if a Warning is issued. A Tornado Warning means a tornado is happening or about to happen – immediately seek shelter in your safe place!
Focus on potential impacts regardless of storm size or category
Do not focus on a specific storm category; all hurricanes and tropical storms can bring life-threatening storm surge, inland flooding, and damaging winds. The storm’s scale only tells you about the strongest winds near the center of the storm and does not tell you about potentially life-threatening flooding from storm surge or rain. Remain vigilant even if the winds have weakened and the storm becomes a lower category or tropical storm — rainfall and storm surge impacts often continue.
Deadly hazards occur well outside of the cone
Impacts can be felt far from the storm’s center, even well inland and outside the Forecast Cone. Remember: the storm itself can stretch well beyond the Forecast Cone, and so can the impacts.
The National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone shows the probable forecast track of the center of the storm. This means that the storm’s center will probably travel somewhere within the cone’s boundaries. (Historically, the storm’s center has remained within the forecasted cone roughly two-thirds of the time.) The cone does NOT represent the size of the storm in any way.
Take Action Today
Are you ready for hurricane season? Take action TODAY to be better prepared for when the worst happens. Understand your risk from hurricanes, and begin pre-season preparations now.
Make sure you understand how to interpret forecasts and alerts, and know what to do before, during, and after a storm. Even if you are already well-prepared and knowledgeable, there may be additional things you could do or learn to be even more prepared.
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