A new study by data collection experts SmartSurvey reveals that Hawaii houses will be the most expensive to buy in 2030.
The study analyzed Zillow house price data from 2012 to 2022 to calculate the mean year-on-year price growth rate to predict the average house price by 2030. The same was done with Bureau of Labor Statistics income data to find out the house price to income ratio, discovering where people will have a harder time affording a house in 2030.
Hawaii comes on top, with houses predicted to cost, on average, $1.42 million, but people making ‘only’ $61,221 a year, as data shows house costs growing three times faster than income.
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This means that houses would cost 23.3 times more than people’s incomes, confirming Hawaii is the state where it will be the most unaffordable to buy a house throughout the country. In 2022, Hawaii was already the least affordable state, however, house price was 16 times higher compared to income.
Second is Nevada, which, based on figures predicted by calculating the average growth in house prices from 2012 to 2022, will see housing price tags averaging $1.042 million, with house prices growing over 5 times faster than income. This, compared to the predicted yearly income of $48,369, results in Nevada’s income for 2030 being 21.6 times lower than the projected prices of houses.
California takes the third spot, with houses predicted to cost 20.4 times more than the average yearly income. This results from house prices predicted to cost, on average, $1,239,503 and Californians making an average of $60,712 per year.
Further down on the list, Utah is fourth. By comparing the predicted house price of $1.12 million and the yearly average income of $56,787, the price-to-income ratio results in the first being 19.8 times larger than the latter.
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Idaho closes the top five with houses in 2030 predicted to cost 17.6 times more than the average income.
Montana, Colorado, Oregon, Florida, and Arizona are in sixth to tenth place, with a house price-to-income ratio ranging from 17 to 13.7.
On the other side of the list, houses will be the most affordable in Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Illinois registers the smallest house price-to-income ratio at 2.9, with houses predicted to cost $171,361 and the average income predicted to be $59,929. This results from the analysis of house price data from 2012 to 2022, which registered a median yearly increase of only 2.6%.
Ohio will be the second most affordable state to buy a house, with a house price-to-income ratio of 4.3: the average price for a home will be $242,336, while the average income will be $56,618.
Third is Pennsylvania with a ratio of 5, with Kansas and Iowa following closely with a ratio of 5.1 and 5.2.
A spokesperson from SmartSurvey commented on the findings: “It’s interesting to see what both the house price and the income landscape throughout the country might look like in six years’ time, specifically how it seems that they won’t be growing at the same pace.
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“The fast-growing trend observed over the last ten years in the housing market shows a worrying perspective, as it looks like the already struggling younger generation will be less and less able to afford to buy a house by 2030 and beyond.
“However, this data might also be a good starting point for people looking to relocate in the future, as it allows them to anticipate potential shifts in affordability and plan accordingly.”
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