The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, which is currently located over southeastern Cuba.
The system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, bringing heavy rainfall and the potential for tropical storm conditions to parts of Florida.
The storm’s path is forecast to track near the west coast of Florida, potentially crossing the northern Florida peninsula and moving over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern United States.
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However, due to the close proximity of the track to the coast, even minor changes could significantly alter the areas most affected.
Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, but it is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression once it moves offshore. Favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico could lead to further intensification.
The primary uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore and how quickly it will consolidate.
Key Messages:
- Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Significant rainfall is expected across parts of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning, potentially leading to flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
- Tropical Storm Conditions: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, where tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka, where tropical storm conditions are possible Saturday night and Sunday.
- Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
- Monitoring the System: Residents in other parts of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States, from Georgia to North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress of this system.
The NHC will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.
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