Consumer sentiment among Floridians surged in November, reaching its highest level in over three years, according to the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 81.1, up 3.7 points from October’s revised figure of 77.4, reflecting optimism across economic outlooks and personal financial expectations.
Hector H. Sandoval, director of UF’s Economic Analysis Program, attributed the spike in consumer sentiment to the outcome of the recent presidential election and economic policy developments.
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“This is the first reading after the national presidential election, reflecting Floridians’ sentiment in light of the outcome,” Sandoval explained. “With 56.1% of the vote in Florida going to President-elect Donald Trump, it’s no surprise that consumer sentiment in Florida surged. Elections that shift the party in power typically boost sentiment among those aligned with the winning party.”
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s November decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point further bolstered optimism by reducing borrowing costs.
The index, composed of five key components, saw increases across the board:
- Personal Financial Situation Compared to a Year Ago: Increased 3.6 points from 57.3 to 60.9.
- Expectations of Personal Finances Over the Next Year: Surged 4.6 points to 95.4, marking the largest monthly increase among components.
- Outlook on U.S. Economic Conditions Over the Next Year: Rose 3.8 points to 91.2.
- U.S. Economic Conditions Over the Next Five Years: Increased 3.7 points to 94.0.
- Good Time to Buy Major Household Items: Improved by 3.2 points to 64.1.
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These gains were shared across most demographic groups, though men expressed less favorable views about spending, and women remained more cautious about long-term national economic conditions.
The timing of the sentiment increase aligns with the holiday shopping season, suggesting a positive impact on retail sales statewide. “This is good news for retailers, as spending intentions also saw a significant uptick in November,” Sandoval noted.
While sentiment remains high, Sandoval cautioned that the upcoming government transition introduces uncertainty. “We expect a modest improvement in consumer sentiment as the gains from the election have already materialized. Predictions for the new year are less certain, but indicators like sentiment and stock market performance will help assess the impact of new policies from the incoming administration.”
The November survey included responses from 619 Floridians, gathered through a combination of cellphone interviews and an online panel. The index is benchmarked to 1966, with 100 representing the confidence level of that year. A value of 2 is the lowest possible score, while 150 is the highest.
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