The final New York Times/Siena College poll reveals a razor-thin margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Harris leading by just one point as the country approaches Election Day. This closely contested race, observed in key battleground states, has tightened considerably in recent weeks, challenging the pollsters’ ability to predict a “clear favorite.”
Among 7,879 respondents, 48% voiced support for Harris, while 47% backed Trump, with less than 1% reporting they had already voted for a third-party candidate and 4% remaining undecided or unwilling to disclose their choice.
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In battleground state breakdowns, Harris holds a slim one-point lead in Georgia and three-point advantages in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Conversely, Trump leads by four points in Arizona and one in Michigan, with Pennsylvania evenly split between the candidates.
The poll’s margin of error varies, with plus or minus 1.3 percentage points across all battlegrounds and approximately 3.5 percentage points within each state. Notably, the Times reported a polling disparity with 16% more responses from white Democrats than white Republicans, potentially underestimating Trump’s support.
Harris has seen slight gains among key demographics, with her support from Black voters rising from 80% to 84% and Hispanic voters increasing from 55% to 56%. She has also improved her standing in historically challenging states, particularly Nevada, where she now leads by three points—a state Trump was projected to win significantly prior to President Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July.
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However, Republicans hold a narrow two-point advantage in early voter registration. Though it remains unclear who these early voters are supporting, the NYT/Siena data indicates that Harris has a five-point lead among those who have already cast ballots, as well as among unaffiliated early voters.
As both campaigns make their final pushes, the polling data points to an exceptionally close finish, with potential shifts in key states likely to determine the outcome.
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