AccuWeather expert meteorologists are warning of an escalating threat of extreme flash flooding in the central United States, unfolding within a rare, multi-day severe weather outbreak.
The region faces the danger of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts on Thursday and Friday, leading up to a “high risk” of severe weather forecast for Saturday across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter emphasized the severity of the situation, stating, “Do not let your guard down. Intense rainfall rates, overwhelming rainfall totals and a surge of water moving downstream could lead to life-threatening flash flooding in places where people have never seen it flood in their lifetime. Much of Arkansas and the Ozarks region, the Mississippi Valley up to the Ohio Valley are in the bull’s-eye for the greatest risk of dangerous flash flooding. Many aging drainage systems in communities across the country were not built to handle this much rainfall.”
READ: Severe Storms Unleash Tornadoes, Historic Flooding Across US South And Midwest
Wednesday’s severe weather already resulted in more than 30 preliminary tornado reports across Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
There were also over 200 reports of hail, including two dozen reports of large hail, with some hail reaching the size of baseballs. Wind gusts up to 100 mph were also reported.
AccuWeather meteorologists are highlighting the role of a rare atmospheric river, carrying tropical moisture across a 1,000-mile corridor from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, significantly exceeding average rainfall for this time of year.
“This unusual atmospheric river is funneling moisture from the tropics directly into the central U.S. The intense rainfall from repeated rounds of downpours and thunderstorms will be too much for many creeks and streams to handle,” Porter explained. “Potentially historic and life-threatening flooding will be the most widespread hazard impacting the most people during this stretch of dangerous severe weather. We have not seen this level of concern for flooding in this part of the country in decades. Catastrophic flooding is possible in the some of the hardest hit communities.”
Rainfall totals in some areas of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee could reach 8 to 12 inches over several days, with localized amounts exceeding 16 inches, representing as much as four months’ worth of rain in less than a week.
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“The ground is already saturated in this region; it can’t absorb any more water,” Porter noted. “All of the rain is running off into rising creeks, streams and low-lying areas that are vulnerable to flooding. We expect this to evolve from a flash flooding and severe weather threat to a major river flooding situation that could last for days after the rain and storms finally clear out.”
More than 46 million people are expected to be affected by the intense rainfall, with at least 13 million in a high to extreme flood risk zone, where catastrophic flooding is possible.
Widespread flash flooding is anticipated, along with elevated threats of major river flooding on rivers including the Ohio, Wabash, White, St. Francis, Kentucky and Tennessee rivers.
AccuWeather meteorologists also warn of potential impacts to barge traffic on the lower Mississippi River through mid-April due to flooding, high river levels, fast-moving water, and debris.
Porter urged residents, truck drivers, emergency responders, and travelers to exercise extreme caution, particularly emphasizing the danger of driving on flooded roads.
READ: AccuWeather Warns Of Historic Flooding Threat And Severe Storms In Central US
“Stretches of major highways could be shut down in several states as floodwaters rise into the weekend,” Porter warned. “Please do not attempt to drive down a flooded road or bridge. Even if it only looks like a few inches of floodwaters, it’s impossible to know how deep the water is, how fast it is moving or if the road or bridge underneath has been compromised or washed out. Most flash flooding fatalities involve vehicles and are preventable. Please do not put yourself, your family, bystanders and emergency responders at risk. Swiftwater rescues are extremely dangerous. Turn around and find another route or wait at higher ground until the floodwaters recede.”
Major disruptions to business and supply chain logistics are expected across the region through the weekend. AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin cautioned about potential impacts to shipping routes and facilities, particularly in the Memphis and Louisville areas, which handle up to 5 million packages per day.
AccuWeather also anticipates more than 1,500 flight cancellations across the U.S. from Friday through Sunday.
In addition to the flooding threat, the region is also facing the risk of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts.
After Wednesday’s severe weather, the threat is expected to continue through the weekend, particularly in the southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic.
The highest threat of severe weather on Thursday is focused on northeastern Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northwestern Mississippi into western Tennessee, with the potential for isolated tornadoes, large hail, flash flooding, and strong wind gusts.
Rounds of storms will continue on Friday in northeastern Texas, southwestern Oklahoma, central and northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Tennessee, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky, with similar threats of tornadoes, hail, flash flooding, and damaging winds.
A third “high risk” area of severe weather is forecast for Saturday across northern and central Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, with the overall risk extending from eastern Texas to parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York.
Severe thunderstorms on Saturday could produce tornadoes, large hail, flash flooding, and strong wind gusts.
There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, with potential for hail, heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.
Given the overlapping threats of severe weather and extreme flooding, residents are urged to be mindful of potential flooding in basements and underground storm shelters and to review and have a backup plan for severe weather action.
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