The latest polls for the 2024 presidential election indicate a tight race between incumbent President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump.
Recent polling data suggests that the race has tightened significantly since the previous survey conducted in May. According to an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Trump has now edged ahead of Biden, garnering 41% of the support compared to Biden’s 38%.
This narrow advantage for Trump has opened up since the previous survey showed the two contenders tied at 37% each in May.
The findings indicate that the debate between the candidates last week may have had a significant impact on voter sentiment.
One of the more concerning findings for the Biden campaign is the enthusiasm gap between his supporters and those of Trump. The poll reveals that Trump voters are much more excited about their candidate than Biden voters are about theirs. By a 2-to-1 margin, 59% of Trump supporters say they are “very excited” about voting for their candidate, compared to only 30% of Biden supporters.
Conversely, Biden supporters are more likely to express a lack of enthusiasm, with 37% saying they are “not very excited” or “not at all excited” about their candidate, compared to only 16% of Trump supporters. This enthusiasm gap could be a critical factor in determining voter turnout, as energized supporters are more likely to make the effort to cast their ballots.
Another notable finding from the poll is the shifting allegiances of third-party voters. Trump now leads as the second choice of voters, with 25% of those surveyed saying he was their second choice, compared to only 17% for Biden. This could be a concerning development for the Biden campaign, as some Democratic strategists had calculated that these third-party voters would drift back to Biden as Election Day neared.
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However, the poll suggests that this may not be the case, with 33% of respondents saying their second choice was one of four third-party contenders: independent Cornel West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, and RFK Jr. This could be a significant obstacle for Biden, as he may struggle to regain the support of these voters.
The poll also reveals a concerning trend among Trump supporters regarding their trust in the electoral process. A significant percentage of Trump supporters, 44%, are “not confident” that the 2024 election results will be accurately counted and reported, while an additional 45% say they are only “somewhat confident.”
In contrast, 83% of Biden supporters expressed “very confident” in a fair vote count. This disparity in trust in the electoral system could have far-reaching implications, as it could lead to increased attempts to challenge the legitimacy of the election results, regardless of the outcome.
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