Meteorologists at Colorado Stae University have raised their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a hyperactive period with potentially severe impacts on coastal areas.
The increase in forecasted storm activity is driven by near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, which create ideal conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.
Forecasters now expect 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes (Category 3-5) for the season, significantly above the historical averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The updated predictions also anticipate 120 named storm days and 50 hurricane days, compared to the averages of 69.4 and 27.0 days, respectively.
This heightened forecast follows the emergence of Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm, which experts believe is an indicator of an unusually active season.
“The warm sea surface temperatures are providing the perfect environment for storms to develop and intensify,” said meteorologists.
The forecast is supported by predictions of cool neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions during the peak of the season, which typically lead to reduced vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, further enhancing hurricane activity.
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The probability of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) making landfall in the continental U.S. is estimated at 57%, well above the long-term average of 43%. For the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, the likelihood stands at 31%, and for the Gulf Coast, the probability rises to 38%. The Caribbean region also faces an elevated risk, with a 62% chance of a major hurricane passing through.
Residents are urged to make preparations early, as even a single hurricane landfall can make the season devastating. “It only takes one storm to have a significant impact on a community, so thorough preparations should be made every year regardless of forecasted activity,” forecasters warned.
With sea surface temperatures in the hurricane-prone Main Development Region measuring around 1°C above the average for 1991–2020, experts are confident that the 2024 hurricane season will surpass the typical levels of storm activity.
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