CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday that the current percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is on the right track is a “bad sign” for Vice President Kamala Harris.
An average of 28% of Americans currently believe the country is on the right track, which historically puts an incumbent party on track to lose an upcoming election, Enten said. The CNN reporter said that the incumbent party normally loses an election if an average of 25% believe the nation is on the right track, while a party is likely to win if that number ticks up to an average of 42%.
“When does the average, when an incumbent party loses the election? Look at that, it’s just 25%. That looks a heck of a lot like that 28% that currently think the country is on the right track,” Enten said. “When the White House party wins … 42% on average think the country is on the right track. This 25% looks a lot more like this 28%, it doesn’t look anything like this 42%, this to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ campaign. The bottom line is, it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”
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The current 28% is significantly lower than the averages past incumbent presidents had when they won reelection. The averages ranged from 39% in the 1996 election up to 47% during the election of 1984, when former President Ronald Reagan won reelection.
“Look throughout history … in all of these instances, far more than 28% thought that the country was on the right track. 39% back in 1996, we’ve got an upwards of 47% in ’84, of course that was a blowout for Ronald Reagan. So there is no historical precedent for the White House party winning another term in the White House when just 28% of the country thinks that we’re on the right track,” Enten continued.
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Enten assured that a historical precedent can be broken, citing the 2022 midterm elections when the Democrats saw good results. During the midterms, only 26% of Americans believed the nation was on the right track.
The midterm election results could mean that Trump is so unpopular that precedent does not matter in this election, Enten suggested.
“Maybe we’ve entered a new political environment where Donald Trump is so unpopular that these historical norms, these historical measures that we look at, don’t actually mean what we think anymore. I’ll tell you this much, Kamala Harris better hope that’s the case, because otherwise this right track, wrong direction situation will not work out in their favor … They’re gonna have to hope that there is a historical norm broken like in the past midterm because if there isn’t, Donald Trump is going to end up in the White House for another term,” Enten said.
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The former president’s favorability rating stands at 43%, while 52% view him unfavorably, according to FiveThirtyEight. Harris holds a 47.3% favorable rating and a 46.4% unfavorable rating.
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