CNN host Dana Bash and political analyst Kristen Soltis Anderson expressed skepticism on Sunday regarding a new Iowa poll indicating a surprising lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump in the typically Republican-leaning state.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, released Saturday, showed Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of 47% to 44%. Pollster Ann Selzer noted her own surprise at Harris’s lead, calling it a “clear leap into a leading position.” However, on State of the Union, Bash acknowledged that Republicans in Iowa are questioning the poll’s accuracy, though they do see potential trends favoring Harris among certain voter demographics.
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“Republicans I’ve talked to in Iowa think that that is probably overstating her support,” Bash explained, “but they do see a trend there with late-breaking support for Kamala Harris, especially among older women.”
Anderson, known for her polling analysis, also voiced caution, pointing out that while Selzer is a respected pollster, every poll can yield outliers. “In my own data, I’ve seen senior women trending more Democratic,” Anderson noted, adding that she does not believe it’s to the extent suggested in the Selzer poll. “Even good pollsters sometimes have outliers, and that’s why David Axelrod’s comments on uncertainty are so important.”
Anderson went on to describe the two possible scenarios emerging from recent polling: a “reboot” of the Obama coalition favoring Harris, seen in increased turnout from younger voters and voters of color, or a potential “realignment” that Trump’s team hopes for, where he performs better with key demographics, including young and minority voters.
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“There’s real uncertainty,” Anderson concluded, noting that while the polls are close, it’s still possible that either candidate could pull ahead significantly. “We’re not just uncertain about who will win; there’s a chance one of these candidates could take a strong lead. Nothing is certain right now.”
Nationally, polls between Harris and Trump remain tight, with RealClearPolitics showing Trump ahead by just 0.1 points, holding 48.4% of the vote compared to Harris’s 48.3%.
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