As election day has arrived, all eyes are on key trends and states that could determine the next president. Here are five significant developments that may signal whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris is on the path to victory.
Pennsylvania Deadlock
Pennsylvania is widely viewed as the election’s tipping point state, with both campaigns recognizing it as crucial for securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Polling data shows a deadlock, and The Hill reported that neither candidate is projected to reach 270 without Pennsylvania.
The Republican National Committee has mobilized grassroots groups to reach low-propensity voters across the state, including targeting Amish communities and truck drivers who typically find it challenging to vote. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has been active on the ground, knocking on more than 800,000 doors in Pennsylvania.
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Harris’s Margin in Virginia
Virginia is expected to lean toward Harris, but the margin of victory could reveal broader trends. Political analyst Christian Heines suggests that if Trump narrows Harris’s lead to below seven points, it could indicate a favorable trend for Trump across key swing states. Virginia’s polls close at 7 p.m. ET, making it an early indicator of how the night might unfold.
Republicans have tried to replicate the strategy that helped Glenn Youngkin win the governor’s seat in 2021. With thousands of volunteers and attorneys positioned at polling locations, Virginia could offer insight into rural and minority voter support for Trump, which may impact results in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
The Muslim Vote in Michigan
In Michigan, a large portion of the Muslim community remains disillusioned with Democratic policies, particularly on Middle East issues, and some organizers have launched efforts like “Abandon Harris” to sway this demographic away from the Democratic ticket. The group “Drive for 75” believes that a strong Muslim voter turnout could shift Michigan toward Trump.
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Following discontent from Democratic primary voters who cast “uncommitted” ballots in protest of Biden, some campaign officials are concerned that the Muslim vote could destabilize the “Blue Wall” states, putting Michigan’s electoral votes in play.
Harris’s Appeal to Suburban Women
The Harris campaign has made a strong push to win over suburban women, enlisting former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney to appeal to moderate voters.
A recent Iowa poll by J. Ann Selzer showed Harris leading Trump with senior women, a demographic that could be crucial in the Midwest’s “Blue Wall” states, where the electorate is generally whiter and older than in the South.
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Trump’s Standing in Iowa
The same poll in the Des Moines Register suggested that Harris could lead in Iowa, a state that Trump won in 2020. However, an Emerson College poll released around the same time showed Trump leading by double digits, challenging the Register’s findings.
Trump’s campaign has dismissed the Register’s poll as an outlier, and the state will be closely watched after its polls close at 9 p.m. ET. If Harris performs well in Iowa, it may indicate a broader shift, while a strong Trump showing would reinforce his hold in the Midwest.
These developments could play a pivotal role in deciding the election, as both campaigns look for any edge in the final hours. As results roll in, early indications from these states may reveal which candidate has the upper hand in the race for the White House.
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